***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 0.0 42.0 85.1 38.2 38.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 30.3 37.0 41.9 86.4 38.3 40.6 30.2 39.5 48.7 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 39.8 49.7 42.5 84.5 41.3 39.6 42.0 52.3 59.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 73.3 63.4 53.3 93.6 43.3 44.5 57.5 68.7 72.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 56.8 49.4 51.1 90.5 45.2 42.9 43.3 50.6 57.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 36.1 43.7 65.2 95.5 50.3 45.8 36.7 43.6 63.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 42.4 29.0 43.1 88.6 41.6 42.5 25.8 38.0 45.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 64.6 68.6 54.3 86.1 42.1 39.6 63.7 72.7 86.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 53.1 43.3 50.3 88.9 45.3 42.1 33.7 50.3 59.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 65.1 51.9 55.9 86.3 43.0 39.8 38.8 60.5 69.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 56.3 46.3 47.3 88.4 42.6 41.2 40.2 52.8 61.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 36.3 40.7 45.1 86.0 41.8 40.0 35.5 43.8 59.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 57.5 46.7 53.8 91.0 43.2 43.3 42.6 51.9 63.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 45.0 54.8 55.4 87.8 42.0 43.0 49.0 58.4 64.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 35.8 42.9 51.4 94.0 46.3 44.4 35.3 46.3 55.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 57.0 51.2 50.8 91.0 43.0 42.9 43.4 53.5 63.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 39.2 34.9 43.1 88.7 44.1 43.3 30.3 36.2 44.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 56.0 45.5 62.2 84.4 41.2 39.2 39.9 51.3 67.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 30.8 34.4 42.0 85.8 40.2 40.6 32.5 38.8 52.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 53.8 45.6 71.3 88.7 45.3 42.5 39.2 48.0 58.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 34.9 41.1 45.3 88.5 44.7 41.7 37.6 42.4 53.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 45.6 39.4 43.4 88.7 45.5 43.7 33.1 43.2 50.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 33.6 41.1 44.0 86.0 43.9 42.0 36.1 43.3 51.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 42.1 48.0 54.5 85.5 41.2 40.6 44.3 56.5 65.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 37.9 41.8 53.4 90.6 40.1 42.5 38.3 50.5 62.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 35.8 44.1 49.7 89.4 43.0 43.1 37.8 47.4 49.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 36.7 42.4 50.0 88.2 38.8 40.9 41.0 49.5 58.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 53.8 40.8 53.0 95.2 45.0 45.5 35.4 48.0 53.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 54.7 62.7 64.5 85.0 41.4 39.9 57.0 69.8 80.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 30.9 33.5 41.3 85.0 37.4 39.4 31.1 43.1 51.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------