***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 12.1 102.9 61.1 52.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.6 9.5 12.0 101.7 61.0 51.0 4.5 7.1 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 5.7 12.6 10.8 91.6 58.9 47.6 5.7 10.8 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.4 14.5 13.3 102.3 62.8 51.4 8.0 11.6 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.7 13.1 13.2 101.3 62.8 51.2 4.9 7.3 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.6 12.5 16.7 99.6 60.2 49.5 4.3 7.9 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.1 12.8 108.7 61.6 53.1 4.2 7.2 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 19.1 20.2 14.9 99.0 62.5 50.4 10.5 14.1 25.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.6 12.3 13.2 99.4 66.1 49.9 4.9 9.1 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.8 14.4 14.9 95.6 63.0 49.3 6.1 9.8 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.5 12.9 12.9 103.0 65.2 50.5 4.3 8.4 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.0 16.7 12.5 103.4 64.4 51.3 2.3 9.9 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.1 14.2 14.2 103.1 62.5 51.1 2.5 9.6 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.5 10.5 14.1 91.2 56.1 46.9 6.7 9.4 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.4 12.1 12.5 103.5 64.4 51.3 2.6 5.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.9 12.7 13.1 102.1 62.9 50.6 4.3 9.5 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.4 8.3 12.3 105.0 62.2 52.3 5.4 7.3 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 6.8 16.1 15.8 88.3 59.8 46.9 6.9 13.1 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.1 12.7 11.3 94.9 60.8 48.7 4.3 6.3 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 6.0 12.6 18.6 97.2 62.5 50.1 6.6 11.0 13.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.2 12.5 11.7 98.5 63.9 50.6 3.6 8.6 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 2.7 12.1 12.5 106.5 65.7 51.7 5.2 7.1 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.0 8.0 10.9 87.8 59.8 46.1 3.1 6.4 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 6.7 13.3 13.4 87.4 56.1 45.5 5.7 11.4 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.5 16.0 14.5 105.1 63.1 51.4 5.3 7.3 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.9 10.7 12.3 97.1 62.4 50.7 2.5 7.7 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.0 13.1 14.4 105.8 63.2 51.5 3.5 9.8 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 9.6 12.5 12.8 101.0 62.9 51.2 4.2 7.1 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 8.9 17.2 16.3 89.1 57.8 47.1 7.5 13.9 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 11.6 11.3 11.8 100.5 60.3 50.6 4.1 8.7 14.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------