***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.5 84.9 53.7 44.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 4.3 8.9 11.8 92.7 57.5 46.2 6.1 7.4 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 7.6 16.0 11.5 86.1 58.5 45.7 10.7 13.7 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 10.0 17.6 13.9 87.2 57.6 47.1 11.3 15.2 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 8.2 16.6 13.2 85.5 58.8 46.3 5.7 15.1 21.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 7.0 10.9 15.9 81.9 46.9 43.2 8.0 11.8 16.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 3.4 9.4 11.4 91.0 54.5 46.1 5.1 9.1 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 16.8 23.6 13.4 76.7 51.3 43.8 17.2 23.3 26.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 6.5 16.6 13.0 84.3 58.8 46.8 6.8 13.6 22.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 8.6 17.0 14.4 79.2 54.9 45.2 8.7 15.4 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 6.1 12.6 11.8 79.5 53.7 43.5 7.2 12.3 17.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 9.2 13.4 10.7 77.8 52.4 43.3 8.6 12.7 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 9.4 15.8 13.0 81.8 50.4 43.3 6.8 15.7 22.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 8.5 20.1 16.1 97.7 62.9 49.7 11.1 15.7 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 13.5 12.9 13.0 85.3 56.2 47.1 5.1 12.1 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 6.6 14.7 12.5 80.8 52.6 43.4 6.9 13.9 18.5 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.8 8.8 11.9 90.5 55.0 46.9 4.1 8.3 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 8.7 14.5 16.2 78.6 53.3 45.8 6.6 13.4 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 3.7 10.0 12.0 93.6 58.8 46.6 5.4 9.2 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.0 12.1 18.6 82.5 51.8 47.3 6.5 11.4 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 7.4 19.0 11.7 86.9 58.0 46.4 7.6 13.6 20.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.4 12.3 12.4 94.6 58.6 48.1 7.2 9.8 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 5.9 14.8 12.6 95.6 60.8 48.4 5.7 11.8 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 8.5 14.0 14.6 84.0 56.2 46.7 8.9 12.8 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 7.9 18.7 13.8 89.7 56.6 46.4 5.4 15.3 21.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 13.3 9.0 11.7 82.9 50.2 43.7 3.7 8.9 19.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 6.2 13.6 12.8 89.1 53.8 45.6 4.0 12.3 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 5.6 12.3 13.8 86.0 57.7 47.2 4.0 9.4 18.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 12.3 19.1 16.9 81.0 51.9 47.0 11.2 18.3 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 3.7 12.4 11.3 90.5 55.5 45.6 4.5 10.8 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------