***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-13.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.2 87.6 55.8 46.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.8 9.8 9.6 79.0 50.9 44.9 4.3 9.4 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.9 10.0 10.9 91.0 54.1 47.1 6.1 9.3 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 19.8 21.1 14.7 114.0 63.4 52.4 13.0 17.7 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 15.9 14.4 13.9 108.3 60.0 50.8 7.5 12.1 17.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 11.9 16.7 21.4 135.0 65.8 59.0 4.0 10.4 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.6 6.1 9.5 76.8 52.4 45.4 2.6 5.1 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 23.5 24.2 15.6 112.0 62.7 52.5 17.4 21.7 25.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 13.8 14.1 13.1 101.6 57.9 49.8 6.1 11.9 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 18.4 18.1 15.3 107.8 61.7 51.9 12.3 15.6 21.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 14.7 15.1 13.6 114.8 61.4 52.2 7.2 12.3 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.6 13.6 114.8 61.4 51.8 5.0 9.6 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.9 17.1 16.6 120.7 63.9 53.9 7.8 12.7 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 21.3 23.1 15.0 102.1 57.5 51.3 10.1 19.4 26.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.3 14.7 14.9 115.6 65.8 52.4 3.7 8.8 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 14.4 15.4 15.2 119.9 61.8 53.2 9.0 12.4 18.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.7 9.2 9.3 77.1 51.7 45.1 3.2 8.5 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 16.0 19.5 17.7 106.8 63.3 53.2 9.6 14.4 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 14.6 12.7 10.2 84.0 51.2 45.8 6.4 12.4 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.0 14.4 20.1 106.6 61.7 53.6 6.1 9.3 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.0 11.6 97.6 55.1 48.6 6.3 8.9 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 13.3 12.1 9.7 82.1 51.0 45.8 5.1 12.0 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.7 11.2 90.2 52.9 46.8 8.0 14.2 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.4 15.1 102.3 60.7 51.4 9.4 13.5 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 12.9 11.6 13.7 100.5 58.9 49.6 5.7 10.5 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 7.1 16.5 15.9 124.7 65.7 54.1 6.4 11.9 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 5.3 12.1 12.2 90.6 56.7 48.0 6.0 10.5 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.9 15.9 15.3 121.0 66.3 54.0 5.0 8.3 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 21.5 22.6 18.5 106.1 61.4 53.4 13.7 18.2 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.7 9.5 9.8 80.5 51.1 45.0 2.7 9.2 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------