***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 9.2 67.7 45.5 44.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.9 1.6 8.5 72.2 46.0 45.9 0.4 3.5 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 6.1 2.5 9.3 70.5 47.3 42.9 0.4 2.9 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.4 7.6 11.4 75.6 46.0 43.6 3.1 8.2 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.6 2.9 10.9 71.4 42.5 40.1 1.0 5.4 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.4 4.5 11.2 69.2 36.8 37.1 3.2 5.8 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 4.1 3.3 9.4 78.8 52.3 48.7 0.3 2.6 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 4.1 4.5 10.4 62.4 32.9 33.5 4.5 11.6 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 1.5 1.7 10.9 73.3 43.0 40.8 0.8 3.2 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 1.7 2.0 11.3 67.3 38.6 36.5 1.5 3.9 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 1.3 1.7 9.1 63.0 39.9 35.7 1.2 3.2 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 1.4 0.3 8.3 56.3 28.7 30.3 0.9 5.0 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 2.6 3.9 10.0 63.8 32.8 32.8 3.9 6.9 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 1.9 2.7 10.3 62.3 40.5 36.9 1.8 3.9 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.6 4.3 11.0 76.2 50.1 45.8 2.8 4.3 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.1 4.0 9.9 67.4 39.4 36.1 2.1 5.1 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 4.4 4.7 9.7 82.5 56.4 52.6 0.7 3.3 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 1.2 1.8 12.4 67.0 37.3 36.4 1.5 3.0 5.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.0 2.2 8.6 70.4 44.8 44.4 0.4 2.8 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 2.3 3.4 14.0 71.0 36.2 37.5 2.9 5.4 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 5.1 1.3 10.4 74.1 45.3 43.1 0.4 2.3 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 4.8 3.2 8.8 72.3 49.6 48.1 1.1 3.3 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 4.9 2.2 9.4 70.9 44.7 43.3 0.8 2.7 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.1 2.6 11.5 70.4 43.7 39.9 1.6 6.3 9.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 6.7 3.1 11.4 70.8 43.4 43.3 1.6 5.1 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 1.9 0.4 9.8 61.0 31.2 32.9 0.4 6.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 5.1 2.0 10.7 69.7 44.6 44.1 1.1 3.1 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.1 3.6 11.0 77.5 47.8 44.6 1.3 4.4 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 3.1 5.4 12.8 66.4 36.9 36.0 4.1 7.4 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 3.7 0.6 8.4 68.9 44.6 43.6 0.3 1.5 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------