***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 9999.0 0.0 17.4 0.6 64.5 60.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 18.2 18.2 17.2 0.6 66.8 60.7 16.6 17.3 18.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 17.8 17.9 17.6 0.7 64.9 61.6 16.9 17.5 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.9 11.1 15.5 0.5 64.6 59.3 9.4 10.5 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 18.4 18.7 16.1 0.7 66.6 61.9 17.1 18.0 18.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 17.8 17.7 14.3 0.7 65.1 61.2 15.6 16.4 17.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 17.8 17.9 17.1 0.5 66.9 60.1 16.7 17.2 17.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.3 14.6 0.7 63.5 61.5 4.5 5.8 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 17.8 17.9 16.7 0.8 66.7 62.7 16.4 17.4 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 17.8 18.0 15.5 0.8 63.8 61.8 16.8 17.4 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 18.8 18.3 15.9 0.8 67.0 62.8 16.8 17.7 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 17.1 17.7 15.5 0.8 65.6 62.1 15.9 16.7 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 18.9 18.4 15.1 0.7 63.3 61.1 16.8 17.6 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 17.8 17.9 16.4 0.6 63.0 59.1 16.8 17.4 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 17.9 17.7 15.8 0.4 60.2 57.5 16.6 17.5 18.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 19.4 18.9 15.5 0.7 65.0 61.8 17.2 18.0 19.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 17.3 17.3 16.8 0.5 64.8 59.3 16.1 16.5 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 17.6 17.6 14.8 0.7 61.6 60.1 16.1 17.2 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 18.0 18.0 17.4 0.6 66.4 61.3 16.5 17.1 18.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 12.3 12.5 12.5 0.6 60.8 59.1 11.0 12.0 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 17.8 18.2 17.3 0.7 64.5 61.8 17.0 17.4 18.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 18.1 17.9 16.9 0.5 63.8 59.1 16.9 17.2 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 18.6 18.1 17.4 0.7 65.9 61.2 16.8 17.3 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 17.6 17.7 16.4 0.7 63.1 60.5 16.5 17.2 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 17.8 17.8 15.9 0.4 62.2 58.4 16.8 17.5 18.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 17.4 17.7 14.6 0.7 64.8 61.6 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 17.8 17.7 16.6 0.5 62.6 58.7 16.5 17.5 17.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 18.0 18.3 15.8 0.5 63.8 59.5 16.9 17.6 18.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 12.3 12.1 13.8 0.7 60.7 59.4 10.9 11.9 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 18.0 17.9 17.4 0.6 66.8 61.2 16.6 17.2 17.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------