***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 17.6 0.1 51.9 52.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 17.1 16.7 17.3 -0.1 49.9 50.6 15.0 16.7 18.0 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 15.3 17.3 17.8 0.1 52.3 52.4 15.9 17.0 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 8.1 9.9 16.0 0.1 54.9 52.4 8.7 9.5 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 15.6 17.2 16.3 0.1 52.2 52.7 16.5 17.1 17.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 14.2 15.4 14.5 -0.1 50.6 50.0 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.4 17.2 -0.2 47.7 49.9 14.7 16.8 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 3.1 4.4 14.7 -0.1 49.2 50.6 3.5 4.4 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 15.0 16.8 16.8 0.1 51.2 53.0 15.7 16.6 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 15.0 16.8 15.6 0.0 49.2 51.4 15.9 16.8 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 15.0 16.8 16.0 0.1 51.2 51.7 16.0 16.8 17.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 14.2 15.9 15.6 0.0 50.5 50.8 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 15.2 16.6 15.2 -0.1 50.7 49.7 15.8 16.6 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 15.1 17.0 16.3 -0.3 49.6 49.4 16.1 17.1 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 15.6 17.2 16.1 0.1 54.8 52.4 15.8 17.1 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 15.6 17.0 15.6 0.0 52.6 50.8 16.5 16.9 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.7 15.9 16.9 -0.3 47.3 48.7 14.3 16.3 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 14.3 16.3 14.9 -0.2 47.5 50.4 15.5 16.5 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.9 16.7 17.5 -0.1 50.9 51.0 15.1 16.5 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 8.9 10.2 12.5 -0.3 47.4 49.3 9.5 10.4 12.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 15.1 17.1 17.4 0.2 53.8 53.1 15.8 16.8 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 17.3 16.9 17.0 -0.3 46.6 48.9 15.2 16.9 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 15.4 17.4 17.5 -0.1 53.1 51.0 15.7 17.1 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 14.8 16.7 16.4 -0.1 49.0 51.0 15.9 16.8 17.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 15.2 16.8 16.1 0.0 51.5 51.5 15.7 16.7 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 16.3 15.9 14.8 -0.1 51.5 50.2 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 14.9 16.4 16.8 -0.1 50.2 50.8 15.4 16.4 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 15.5 17.6 16.2 0.1 54.9 52.5 15.8 17.1 17.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 9.0 10.7 13.8 -0.3 46.9 49.6 9.6 10.8 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 17.1 17.0 17.5 0.0 51.3 51.4 15.0 16.7 17.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------