***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-13.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 16.1 0.3 56.6 54.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 16.6 16.4 16.1 0.5 57.2 56.1 14.7 16.1 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 16.9 16.8 16.3 0.3 56.0 54.6 15.4 16.3 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.7 9.9 14.4 0.2 52.1 52.8 8.0 9.9 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 18.0 17.7 14.8 0.3 54.6 53.7 15.9 17.3 19.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 17.1 16.8 12.9 0.1 52.5 51.7 14.6 16.2 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 16.5 17.1 16.1 0.5 57.7 56.2 14.8 16.0 17.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 5.3 5.6 13.4 0.4 54.0 53.9 3.5 4.5 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 17.0 16.7 15.2 0.3 54.7 54.0 15.5 16.2 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 17.8 17.7 14.1 0.3 54.2 53.9 15.1 17.2 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 17.8 18.4 14.4 0.3 55.4 53.9 15.7 17.1 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 16.8 18.0 14.2 0.3 54.8 53.7 14.6 16.0 18.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 18.0 18.4 13.7 0.2 53.9 52.8 15.3 17.2 20.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.6 16.2 14.9 0.1 52.6 52.8 14.4 15.9 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 18.1 17.5 14.6 0.1 51.1 52.5 15.7 17.5 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 18.4 18.8 14.1 0.2 55.0 52.8 15.9 17.7 20.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 15.8 15.8 15.8 0.5 56.4 56.4 14.1 15.4 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 16.6 16.3 13.5 0.3 52.9 53.8 14.7 15.9 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 16.5 16.2 16.2 0.4 56.2 55.6 14.6 15.9 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 11.6 11.6 11.3 0.4 52.8 54.4 9.6 10.8 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 17.0 17.2 15.8 0.3 55.6 53.9 15.6 16.4 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.2 15.9 0.4 55.6 55.6 14.1 15.9 17.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 16.7 16.4 16.1 0.3 54.6 54.6 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 16.5 16.1 14.9 0.2 52.9 53.5 14.8 15.9 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 17.5 17.6 14.7 0.1 55.3 53.3 15.3 17.0 18.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 17.1 17.7 13.5 0.4 53.2 54.0 14.5 16.2 19.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 17.0 16.9 15.4 0.2 56.9 54.1 15.4 16.5 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 18.2 17.7 14.6 0.1 51.7 52.3 16.0 17.5 19.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 11.8 11.4 12.5 0.3 52.9 53.9 9.3 11.1 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.7 16.2 0.4 57.9 55.9 14.8 16.0 17.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------