***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 9999.0 0.0 17.0 2.3 80.8 76.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 18.8 19.8 17.0 2.4 83.2 77.9 16.2 16.8 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 19.3 20.9 17.4 2.6 84.6 78.8 16.4 17.0 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 11.5 12.3 14.4 2.2 77.2 73.6 7.9 9.3 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 19.9 21.2 16.0 2.8 83.9 79.5 16.4 16.8 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 18.2 19.6 14.0 2.9 83.2 79.7 14.5 15.1 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 18.3 19.3 16.7 2.2 80.0 76.3 16.0 16.6 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 6.5 8.0 14.7 3.2 85.9 82.8 3.3 4.4 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 19.3 20.8 17.1 3.0 85.6 81.0 16.1 16.7 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 19.3 20.5 15.7 3.1 84.4 81.8 15.9 16.9 18.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 19.8 20.9 16.1 3.0 85.3 81.3 16.1 16.5 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 18.6 20.1 15.4 3.1 87.0 82.9 14.7 15.9 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 19.9 20.7 15.4 3.0 83.8 81.9 15.6 16.6 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 18.8 20.5 17.1 3.1 84.9 81.2 16.4 17.0 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 18.2 18.8 15.3 1.7 74.0 69.1 15.1 16.4 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 19.7 21.5 15.6 2.9 84.3 80.6 16.3 17.0 18.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 17.4 18.3 16.6 2.3 81.3 76.6 15.5 15.7 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 18.9 19.6 15.1 3.1 84.1 81.6 15.6 16.5 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 18.4 20.1 17.3 2.6 85.9 79.4 16.1 16.8 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 13.1 14.1 12.7 3.0 84.3 82.0 10.0 11.5 12.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 19.1 20.5 17.4 2.7 83.3 78.7 16.5 16.8 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 18.5 19.8 16.9 2.5 83.0 78.8 16.0 16.9 17.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 19.0 20.9 17.6 2.8 88.2 80.8 16.7 17.2 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 19.1 20.3 16.8 3.0 84.1 80.9 16.0 17.1 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 18.8 18.6 15.5 2.0 75.4 73.3 15.8 16.9 18.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 18.4 20.2 14.3 2.8 86.3 81.6 14.7 15.5 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 18.7 19.0 16.2 2.0 77.1 74.1 16.4 16.9 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 18.6 19.5 15.1 2.2 78.1 74.0 15.5 16.3 17.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 13.2 14.7 14.3 3.1 83.9 81.8 10.0 11.1 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 18.6 19.8 17.1 2.4 83.1 77.9 16.2 16.7 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------