***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 0.0 7.2 0.6 67.7 63.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 6.7 6.7 7.1 0.6 66.3 62.7 5.2 5.8 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 8.9 9.0 7.0 0.7 70.0 65.1 7.1 8.2 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 3.4 3.5 4.8 0.6 68.7 64.6 1.4 2.7 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 5.9 6.1 5.1 0.8 73.8 69.1 4.2 5.0 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 4.9 5.3 3.3 0.8 75.0 67.7 3.0 3.9 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 6.8 6.8 7.1 0.6 65.3 62.6 5.3 6.0 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -0.5 -0.5 3.4 0.7 72.5 67.4 -2.0 -1.0 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 6.4 6.5 5.6 0.8 71.6 68.3 5.2 5.8 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 6.5 6.8 4.1 0.8 73.4 68.3 4.9 5.7 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 6.3 6.6 4.7 0.8 76.4 69.9 4.7 5.5 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 5.0 5.2 4.2 0.7 73.7 67.9 3.2 4.3 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 6.0 6.4 3.9 0.8 76.9 69.3 4.2 5.0 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 7.2 7.3 5.6 0.7 71.4 66.4 5.7 6.3 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 6.8 6.7 5.3 0.5 65.4 62.4 5.6 6.0 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 7.0 7.5 4.4 0.9 77.8 70.5 5.2 5.8 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 6.8 6.8 6.8 0.5 64.6 61.4 5.6 6.2 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 4.3 4.5 3.5 0.8 72.9 67.7 3.0 3.6 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 6.8 6.9 7.0 0.6 67.4 63.9 5.2 5.9 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 1.8 2.1 1.7 0.8 71.6 66.8 0.3 1.0 1.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 6.6 6.8 6.5 0.7 70.6 66.5 4.9 6.0 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 6.2 6.1 6.9 0.6 65.9 63.4 4.9 5.5 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 6.5 6.5 6.8 0.7 69.2 65.6 4.7 5.4 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 6.5 6.6 5.4 0.8 73.2 67.2 4.9 5.6 6.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 6.8 6.8 5.6 0.5 66.5 63.3 5.1 5.9 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 5.8 6.1 4.1 0.9 76.0 69.1 4.1 4.8 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 7.3 7.7 6.4 0.5 66.0 63.1 5.4 6.4 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 5.3 5.5 5.1 0.7 69.9 65.8 3.6 4.8 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 3.8 3.9 2.9 0.8 72.8 67.7 2.1 2.8 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 7.1 7.2 7.2 0.6 67.3 63.3 5.4 6.2 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------