***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 8.8 0.1 51.2 52.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.5 8.5 0.0 50.2 50.8 6.8 7.5 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.8 9.4 8.5 0.1 48.0 51.9 9.1 9.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.6 6.3 0.0 48.6 51.6 2.9 4.8 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.0 6.4 0.1 50.6 53.4 4.8 6.0 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.9 5.1 4.7 0.1 51.0 52.1 4.2 5.1 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.5 8.6 0.0 48.0 51.7 6.8 7.6 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -1.0 0.1 4.7 0.1 46.5 51.1 -0.5 0.3 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.9 6.7 6.9 0.2 50.9 53.7 5.8 6.6 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.9 5.4 0.1 48.1 52.7 5.7 7.1 8.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.0 6.7 6.0 0.2 50.8 53.5 4.9 6.6 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.0 4.7 5.5 0.1 47.4 51.8 3.9 4.8 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.8 5.1 0.1 49.5 53.0 4.7 5.8 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 8.0 7.7 6.7 0.0 47.4 50.5 6.7 7.8 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 7.8 7.4 6.8 0.0 48.2 51.1 6.4 7.5 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.3 5.7 0.2 51.3 53.5 6.1 7.3 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.2 7.7 8.3 -0.1 49.3 49.6 7.0 7.8 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.8 4.7 0.2 48.8 52.6 3.7 4.9 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.1 7.7 8.5 0.0 49.9 51.0 6.5 7.8 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 2.4 2.1 3.0 0.1 50.4 51.6 1.1 2.1 2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.3 6.9 7.9 0.1 49.9 53.0 5.6 6.9 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.3 8.2 -0.2 49.0 49.1 6.3 7.3 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.8 7.4 8.2 0.1 48.7 51.8 5.8 7.5 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.9 6.4 6.6 0.1 49.1 52.1 5.6 6.4 7.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.8 6.7 7.0 0.0 45.9 50.6 5.8 7.5 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 4.9 5.9 5.3 0.0 47.8 51.4 5.4 5.9 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.1 7.5 8.0 0.0 48.7 51.4 6.6 7.7 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.0 6.6 0.0 49.6 52.0 4.0 5.0 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 3.4 4.6 4.1 0.2 49.5 52.6 3.7 4.6 5.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.1 7.6 8.7 0.0 48.7 51.4 6.7 7.6 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------