***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.2 -0.2 43.5 48.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.2 5.3 7.1 -0.1 47.6 49.4 4.1 5.4 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 6.3 7.9 6.9 -0.1 46.4 49.3 6.4 8.0 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 0.4 1.7 4.7 -0.2 44.7 49.0 1.4 1.9 3.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.2 4.6 4.9 0.0 44.5 50.8 3.8 5.0 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.0 4.5 3.1 -0.1 52.9 50.0 3.4 4.3 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.6 5.9 7.1 -0.1 46.6 49.3 4.7 6.0 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -3.1 -1.9 3.4 -0.1 47.2 49.7 -2.3 -1.7 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 4.4 6.0 5.5 0.0 46.8 51.4 4.6 6.1 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.5 6.1 4.0 0.0 47.9 50.2 4.4 6.2 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 4.3 5.9 4.6 0.0 49.1 51.0 4.4 6.0 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.7 4.4 4.2 -0.1 45.9 49.6 3.5 4.4 5.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.8 5.2 3.7 -0.1 50.4 50.0 4.5 5.2 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.0 6.1 5.3 -0.1 50.7 49.2 5.1 5.9 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 4.9 6.4 5.2 -0.2 45.8 48.6 5.9 6.5 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.5 6.3 4.2 0.0 50.9 51.1 5.5 6.2 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 5.0 6.1 6.9 -0.2 46.4 48.9 5.0 6.4 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 2.5 3.8 3.3 -0.1 50.1 49.2 2.7 3.8 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.6 5.7 7.0 -0.1 47.5 49.5 4.3 6.1 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -0.2 1.1 1.7 -0.1 51.7 50.2 0.2 1.0 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.5 5.5 6.4 -0.1 45.2 49.9 4.4 6.1 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.1 5.4 6.8 -0.1 46.9 49.5 4.3 5.5 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.3 5.3 6.6 -0.1 47.6 49.5 4.0 5.6 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.2 5.3 5.1 -0.2 49.3 49.1 4.3 5.3 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.6 4.9 5.4 -0.3 41.6 46.6 4.2 6.2 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.2 4.0 0.0 50.9 51.1 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.7 5.7 6.3 -0.2 42.1 47.3 4.8 6.6 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.4 5.2 5.0 -0.1 48.6 50.5 4.0 5.3 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 1.0 2.5 2.7 -0.1 51.3 49.7 1.2 2.4 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 4.8 6.0 7.2 -0.1 47.8 49.5 4.8 6.1 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------