***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-13.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 6.5 0.7 56.3 58.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 6.0 5.8 6.3 0.6 57.8 57.9 4.9 5.6 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 8.1 8.1 6.3 0.8 58.4 59.9 6.2 7.7 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 3.6 3.0 4.3 1.0 61.7 63.3 0.3 1.6 3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 6.0 5.6 4.4 1.1 63.3 64.1 3.8 4.7 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 5.1 4.8 3.0 1.3 69.2 66.6 2.8 4.1 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 6.4 6.2 6.3 0.6 56.1 57.5 4.9 5.9 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 -0.1 0.0 3.0 1.2 68.3 65.4 -2.7 -1.8 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 6.7 6.0 4.9 1.1 61.8 63.1 4.3 5.4 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 6.7 6.6 3.6 1.2 66.9 64.6 4.4 5.6 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 6.7 6.8 4.2 1.3 68.9 67.2 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 5.1 5.1 3.9 1.2 68.1 66.5 2.9 4.2 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 6.2 5.8 3.5 1.3 66.5 66.8 4.0 4.9 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 6.2 6.8 4.9 0.9 61.1 61.3 5.1 5.8 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 7.3 6.6 4.7 1.0 62.0 63.1 5.1 5.7 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 7.3 7.2 3.9 1.3 67.3 67.2 4.8 6.0 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 6.4 6.5 6.1 0.6 56.5 56.8 4.6 6.1 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 4.7 4.0 3.0 1.2 64.2 64.2 2.7 3.5 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 5.8 6.1 6.2 0.7 58.2 58.8 4.7 5.4 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.1 65.0 64.3 0.0 0.9 1.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 5.9 6.6 5.8 0.9 58.5 60.9 4.3 5.4 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 5.8 5.8 6.1 0.6 57.4 57.5 4.3 5.6 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 5.7 5.8 6.0 0.8 59.0 60.4 4.0 5.4 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 6.4 6.1 4.7 1.0 63.0 62.8 4.2 5.6 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.2 4.9 0.8 56.4 59.3 4.5 6.1 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 5.1 5.6 3.6 1.1 63.4 64.4 3.7 4.9 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 6.2 6.6 5.7 0.7 56.1 58.1 4.9 5.7 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 5.5 4.8 4.6 1.1 64.7 64.9 2.9 4.4 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 3.8 3.9 2.5 1.2 64.4 64.4 1.1 2.3 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 6.5 6.6 6.4 0.6 57.4 58.3 5.0 6.1 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------