***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 9999.0 0.0 6.4 1.7 83.4 77.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 6.2 6.9 6.4 1.8 85.7 76.5 4.6 5.1 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 8.8 10.5 6.5 1.9 86.8 80.4 6.4 7.6 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 2.9 3.5 3.7 1.6 75.4 73.2 0.3 1.4 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 5.4 6.1 4.6 2.0 85.6 81.1 2.4 4.6 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 4.8 5.7 2.5 1.9 83.6 81.1 1.4 2.6 3.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 6.5 7.0 6.3 1.8 83.8 75.8 4.3 5.5 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 -0.5 0.1 2.7 1.8 85.3 83.0 -3.1 -2.0 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 6.2 6.6 5.0 1.9 86.6 82.1 4.0 5.6 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 6.4 6.8 3.5 1.9 88.0 83.2 3.9 5.1 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 6.1 6.4 4.0 1.8 83.0 81.4 3.8 4.8 5.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 4.7 5.1 3.2 1.7 82.4 80.6 2.2 3.2 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 5.8 6.3 3.2 1.9 83.8 83.0 2.4 3.6 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 6.7 8.9 5.3 2.1 93.3 84.4 4.2 5.6 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 6.3 6.4 4.5 1.2 72.7 69.8 4.3 5.1 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 7.0 7.5 3.8 2.0 84.0 82.4 4.0 5.6 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 6.2 6.7 6.1 1.8 86.7 75.7 4.9 5.5 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 3.7 4.2 2.9 2.0 90.9 84.5 1.4 3.0 3.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 6.3 7.2 6.5 1.9 87.3 78.9 4.3 5.2 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 1.2 3.2 1.0 2.0 90.5 86.7 -0.6 0.2 0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 5.8 6.8 6.1 1.9 86.0 81.3 3.9 5.3 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 5.7 6.6 6.5 2.0 91.3 80.8 4.0 4.7 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 5.8 6.5 6.3 2.0 90.1 82.6 3.6 4.7 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 6.0 8.0 5.0 2.0 91.7 84.1 4.1 5.3 5.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 6.2 7.0 5.2 1.7 81.7 75.8 3.8 4.9 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 5.8 6.8 3.5 2.3 88.6 86.1 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 7.3 8.3 5.7 1.7 82.8 76.0 4.8 5.7 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 4.5 4.8 4.2 1.6 75.8 74.0 2.2 3.6 4.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 3.9 4.7 2.4 2.0 90.5 84.9 1.1 2.3 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 6.8 7.6 6.5 1.8 85.9 77.4 4.3 5.7 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------