***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 37.2 50.5 54.1 97.6 54.4 48.9 37.6 48.9 61.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 28.8 39.3 47.5 96.0 47.3 47.1 31.6 39.5 48.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 43.5 59.7 55.6 102.0 56.0 50.9 43.5 56.8 62.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 53.0 71.8 67.9 109.2 60.7 56.0 58.8 68.4 75.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 42.0 55.8 63.7 108.7 60.6 55.2 43.2 53.9 57.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 35.6 63.4 70.0 110.3 62.1 57.4 37.5 46.4 64.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 26.2 34.5 45.5 93.6 45.5 46.1 26.1 38.0 51.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 81.4 81.7 69.3 108.5 59.8 56.2 63.1 72.1 84.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 38.9 58.5 64.0 107.5 59.9 54.4 34.8 50.3 61.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 66.9 74.6 70.8 107.6 59.8 54.9 40.0 61.8 77.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 60.7 61.1 62.4 108.4 59.9 55.2 40.8 57.5 67.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 54.7 59.8 61.8 108.4 60.8 55.7 35.6 50.6 60.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 59.0 59.1 68.2 109.1 61.0 56.0 42.6 54.3 64.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 45.2 60.6 75.2 106.9 59.0 55.0 51.3 59.5 64.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 39.2 56.7 61.4 105.5 58.4 54.2 39.6 50.6 62.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 59.9 63.8 65.7 111.5 62.8 57.2 45.9 57.3 64.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 29.9 36.0 43.6 90.9 44.8 44.5 30.2 37.8 43.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 59.7 63.2 75.5 109.4 60.9 56.1 40.7 56.3 67.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 30.7 38.7 50.4 98.6 50.6 48.9 32.0 38.6 51.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 56.6 58.3 80.5 111.2 64.5 57.9 40.5 51.4 58.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 36.9 47.0 59.9 105.3 59.3 53.2 37.6 44.8 48.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 31.4 43.5 46.5 92.5 46.5 46.1 33.1 44.5 49.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 34.7 47.0 55.2 101.5 55.0 51.2 37.4 45.0 52.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 60.7 61.7 69.4 108.4 61.2 55.6 44.8 57.4 65.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 43.1 55.3 63.1 101.3 56.2 51.4 41.0 53.0 62.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 52.4 50.5 65.4 107.6 61.1 55.1 38.1 47.8 52.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 37.2 54.3 57.1 97.1 54.0 49.0 41.9 52.2 59.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 56.1 54.8 66.3 110.4 61.6 57.0 36.0 49.2 62.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 82.5 83.0 78.1 111.1 62.6 57.5 57.6 75.8 90.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 29.8 43.3 49.1 96.4 50.4 47.2 31.6 43.3 47.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------