***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 7.9 16.9 15.2 106.6 60.8 51.8 5.5 14.1 18.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.9 10.0 13.9 110.7 62.8 52.4 3.2 7.2 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 5.1 13.7 16.2 115.8 67.0 54.6 5.9 9.4 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 13.4 17.8 19.4 125.6 67.8 57.9 8.1 11.1 17.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.8 14.6 18.8 124.0 67.9 57.5 4.8 8.6 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 11.1 13.0 20.2 115.3 64.6 56.6 3.8 9.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.3 8.9 13.2 109.1 64.1 52.2 3.9 6.7 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 27.1 28.8 19.5 118.4 69.3 59.0 10.0 14.4 27.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.6 11.6 19.2 121.9 67.4 57.4 5.5 9.0 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 13.7 16.5 20.5 117.9 67.9 57.7 6.1 10.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.6 14.2 17.3 120.6 69.3 58.2 5.3 8.5 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 17.6 18.8 17.3 119.0 69.8 58.6 7.3 9.4 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.0 16.0 19.6 117.7 65.7 57.4 4.3 9.0 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.2 21.7 116.2 67.6 54.2 6.0 9.1 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.2 13.5 16.4 115.4 66.7 55.1 2.5 6.0 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.3 15.5 19.1 125.4 69.9 58.9 4.5 8.5 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.8 11.3 12.6 103.3 62.0 49.6 4.4 6.4 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 8.1 18.3 21.7 116.4 65.7 56.5 6.8 13.8 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 10.3 14.5 14.9 113.0 64.3 53.4 3.0 6.9 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.8 13.8 21.5 112.9 64.8 57.0 4.7 10.4 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.9 13.1 17.6 119.6 66.6 55.8 3.5 7.5 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.7 10.8 13.3 99.9 60.5 49.2 4.0 7.7 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.6 10.1 16.1 113.6 66.2 53.9 2.7 6.0 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.2 18.9 20.1 118.3 66.7 55.2 4.8 9.2 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 5.5 12.1 17.8 111.5 61.3 52.5 5.2 8.9 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.1 12.5 17.4 109.9 65.1 55.5 2.4 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.6 12.8 16.0 105.1 60.4 50.7 3.8 8.1 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.2 18.0 19.3 128.5 70.5 58.9 4.6 7.6 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.4 21.9 21.7 115.9 65.7 56.5 7.7 15.2 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.6 11.3 14.0 108.5 62.8 52.3 4.1 8.4 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------