***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2020.-19.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 13.3 14.7 14.8 94.5 57.7 48.4 7.5 10.7 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.2 10.3 12.1 87.6 53.2 46.2 5.6 9.4 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 16.9 17.3 14.7 96.8 57.8 49.4 11.3 13.9 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 21.4 22.2 17.1 99.1 59.7 50.6 14.2 19.6 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 18.5 19.8 16.6 102.7 60.8 52.5 10.9 14.8 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 15.0 20.9 18.7 110.4 64.9 55.7 7.4 10.8 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 5.6 11.0 11.5 84.4 52.9 44.8 4.9 10.6 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 28.4 28.1 17.7 105.5 61.1 53.5 19.4 25.9 28.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 18.3 17.2 17.1 103.8 58.9 53.0 8.8 14.8 20.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 19.6 20.7 18.7 105.3 60.7 53.5 12.2 18.0 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 19.6 21.3 15.6 103.0 62.2 52.8 10.5 16.9 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.3 15.7 106.7 61.7 53.9 8.2 13.8 20.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 11.6 22.3 18.4 112.9 64.1 55.3 12.3 19.6 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 20.9 20.3 19.8 104.1 59.6 51.1 14.2 18.1 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 17.1 15.5 15.0 91.5 56.1 47.8 9.0 14.3 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 8.9 19.1 16.8 107.8 63.4 54.0 9.4 15.1 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.4 10.8 11.1 84.1 54.3 45.9 5.3 10.3 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.8 20.4 110.2 62.0 54.5 10.3 14.6 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.5 11.6 12.8 90.9 55.6 47.6 6.4 10.6 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.0 14.9 22.3 114.0 65.2 54.8 8.7 10.5 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 18.0 17.2 16.1 99.6 57.8 51.2 9.4 15.4 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.9 12.3 12.1 89.3 56.1 48.4 6.8 11.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.1 16.8 14.2 96.5 60.1 49.4 7.8 12.1 19.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 18.4 19.7 18.3 105.6 60.5 52.7 9.7 14.6 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 18.6 18.6 16.9 94.9 57.4 48.7 7.8 16.3 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 16.0 17.5 17.4 109.7 60.4 54.9 4.9 13.0 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.5 15.0 15.5 94.0 57.9 48.4 8.8 13.6 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 15.1 19.9 16.5 99.8 60.2 51.6 6.9 11.4 21.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.6 25.4 21.1 112.0 63.0 54.9 13.1 20.0 26.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 13.7 12.6 12.9 89.5 55.2 46.8 5.0 11.4 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------