***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2020.-12.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 4.2 6.0 7.8 55.9 38.4 32.9 5.4 8.7 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 3.5 6.0 7.8 62.9 45.0 37.2 3.0 7.4 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 4.3 7.3 8.6 60.7 42.5 35.7 6.3 9.3 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 6.1 14.9 9.8 61.4 43.1 35.2 8.5 17.2 21.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 4.9 6.5 10.0 65.8 42.8 37.5 4.8 9.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 11.3 5.5 10.1 61.8 41.3 36.4 3.2 7.6 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 1.8 3.1 7.0 58.3 43.3 35.2 1.9 3.6 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 10.5 17.0 9.6 59.4 39.9 36.2 10.0 18.4 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 4.6 7.9 9.6 62.5 41.0 35.9 5.0 9.4 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 6.9 10.0 10.5 63.6 41.7 37.5 8.0 12.0 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 3.5 6.4 9.9 63.7 42.1 37.5 4.9 7.4 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 3.5 5.5 8.6 57.1 39.0 35.5 3.0 8.9 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 3.1 5.5 9.3 55.7 38.9 34.0 3.8 7.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 7.2 16.6 12.4 70.9 48.0 38.9 9.7 16.9 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 2.4 4.2 8.7 54.8 40.6 33.0 1.5 7.3 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 3.9 6.9 9.4 59.7 40.3 36.0 3.5 8.5 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 2.3 4.7 7.8 65.6 45.7 37.2 3.3 4.8 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 6.5 6.6 10.6 61.2 38.8 35.7 5.7 11.3 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 4.5 7.6 8.3 64.5 45.8 37.2 5.8 9.8 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 4.7 6.6 11.1 59.6 37.5 34.7 6.1 9.3 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 3.2 6.0 8.7 59.6 39.2 34.7 5.3 8.3 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.0 7.2 8.6 68.4 46.3 37.6 6.0 8.1 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 4.5 9.5 9.5 68.0 46.8 37.4 6.7 10.1 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 5.3 9.3 10.7 64.1 41.5 36.6 8.0 10.8 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 4.3 7.8 10.0 61.6 39.6 35.0 6.4 8.9 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 3.0 4.9 9.2 56.2 39.9 34.1 3.5 8.4 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 3.7 6.6 8.9 58.8 38.3 34.3 6.0 9.8 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 4.5 6.0 9.5 60.4 42.8 35.7 3.1 10.3 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 8.5 10.9 11.5 65.6 42.3 37.3 8.9 13.4 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 2.6 5.6 7.7 59.6 43.4 35.7 3.9 6.4 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------