***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2020.-05.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 6.9 7.3 16.4 140.5 73.6 63.1 0.6 1.8 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.5 10.6 13.8 127.6 69.2 60.0 1.0 3.3 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 10.3 11.5 16.0 145.0 73.4 65.2 2.5 4.7 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 17.0 21.0 21.6 159.7 78.9 67.7 6.9 9.1 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 10.9 13.7 18.3 151.4 74.2 66.9 2.4 4.9 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 9.7 11.1 21.0 166.0 79.0 71.8 3.9 7.0 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.1 9.6 13.7 127.4 68.8 58.7 0.5 3.4 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 17.8 22.7 22.5 156.8 77.3 70.0 4.9 9.5 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 7.9 9.0 18.1 151.3 76.2 68.1 1.5 4.7 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 10.7 13.6 21.2 149.7 75.2 68.3 2.4 5.3 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 8.7 9.9 19.5 157.7 76.9 68.5 1.5 4.1 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 10.8 13.4 20.1 160.1 77.3 69.3 2.4 5.8 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 11.5 16.4 20.9 163.0 80.0 70.8 3.0 5.1 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 14.1 17.3 21.3 140.8 74.7 65.8 2.2 4.2 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 12.4 20.4 21.4 181.5 82.0 70.8 3.4 7.4 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 9.8 11.9 20.4 164.9 78.7 69.9 2.3 5.3 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.4 5.0 12.1 113.4 67.7 56.4 0.7 3.0 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 8.5 11.2 22.9 156.2 77.0 70.3 1.4 3.2 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 4.1 8.6 14.4 130.7 69.9 61.0 0.7 3.0 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 11.8 15.4 25.7 167.8 79.9 73.6 3.0 7.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 10.5 12.9 17.5 153.6 77.1 67.9 0.8 5.4 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.9 7.2 12.5 115.3 69.1 57.7 1.3 2.9 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 10.3 11.7 15.4 133.7 73.3 62.7 2.1 5.2 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 11.4 13.6 20.4 155.7 77.5 69.3 2.1 6.3 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 11.6 12.9 18.4 150.3 75.2 64.9 3.1 5.3 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 11.2 13.2 21.4 168.7 80.9 73.3 1.9 7.6 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 4.7 7.7 16.7 139.4 71.8 62.2 1.5 2.8 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 12.0 15.1 21.0 165.6 80.0 69.0 2.9 6.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 14.2 17.3 23.7 156.7 78.5 70.8 5.9 8.8 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 5.0 9.8 14.5 135.0 70.6 61.4 1.0 2.7 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------