***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 20.8 20.6 18.3 1.0 65.0 60.3 18.7 19.4 20.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 20.1 20.3 17.9 0.9 63.2 59.1 18.4 19.6 20.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 20.0 20.1 18.4 0.9 62.0 58.8 18.5 19.6 20.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 13.8 12.9 15.8 0.8 62.5 58.8 10.8 12.2 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 20.1 20.0 16.4 0.7 58.4 56.9 18.9 19.5 20.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 18.5 18.5 14.2 0.6 58.3 56.1 17.1 17.9 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 19.7 19.8 17.9 0.9 62.3 59.1 17.5 19.3 19.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.7 14.7 0.5 54.9 54.8 6.4 7.5 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 19.3 19.4 16.7 0.7 58.5 56.9 18.4 18.9 19.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 19.4 19.3 15.5 0.6 57.2 55.8 18.3 18.9 19.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 19.9 19.9 16.2 0.6 56.9 55.9 18.2 19.3 20.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 19.2 18.6 15.7 0.5 55.5 55.2 17.7 18.5 20.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 19.7 19.2 14.9 0.5 56.7 55.7 18.5 19.1 20.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 20.1 19.8 16.5 0.6 59.3 55.3 18.5 19.7 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 20.5 20.4 16.8 0.9 66.1 61.0 18.3 18.9 20.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 20.1 19.8 15.7 0.6 58.8 56.5 19.0 19.3 20.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 19.6 19.6 17.7 0.9 62.5 58.5 17.4 19.2 19.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 19.1 18.6 15.1 0.6 57.6 55.6 17.7 18.5 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 19.9 20.1 18.1 0.9 63.4 58.6 18.2 19.4 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.4 12.3 0.5 56.7 55.2 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 19.9 20.0 17.6 0.8 59.9 57.7 18.6 19.5 20.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 20.2 20.2 17.7 0.9 62.5 58.2 18.1 19.7 20.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 20.3 20.3 18.1 0.8 62.9 57.3 18.6 19.7 20.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 19.6 19.6 16.6 0.7 58.7 56.4 18.2 19.1 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 19.9 20.3 16.5 0.9 63.3 59.4 18.2 19.4 20.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 19.1 18.9 14.8 0.5 56.5 55.3 17.8 18.5 20.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 20.5 20.2 17.5 1.0 64.5 60.4 17.8 18.9 20.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 20.6 20.2 16.1 0.8 62.8 59.0 17.9 19.2 20.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.1 14.1 0.5 57.2 54.9 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 19.8 20.5 18.1 1.0 63.9 59.6 17.7 19.4 20.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------