***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2020.-19.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 16.9 16.7 16.4 0.4 55.1 52.2 15.5 16.3 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 15.1 17.2 16.2 0.5 55.8 52.4 14.8 16.6 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.3 16.6 0.3 51.9 51.7 15.3 16.2 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 7.8 9.3 13.9 0.2 50.2 50.8 8.3 9.3 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 15.2 16.9 14.5 0.0 48.5 49.4 15.7 17.0 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 14.1 15.3 12.5 0.0 49.4 50.5 14.2 15.4 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 14.6 17.1 16.2 0.5 55.3 52.4 14.8 16.2 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 3.1 5.1 12.9 -0.1 48.6 48.6 3.0 5.1 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.6 14.9 0.0 48.8 49.9 15.0 16.7 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 14.4 16.1 13.7 0.0 48.6 49.5 15.4 16.3 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 14.8 16.7 14.3 -0.1 47.9 48.8 15.1 16.8 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 13.5 15.5 13.9 -0.1 48.4 48.5 14.2 15.6 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 15.1 16.6 13.2 -0.1 49.6 48.9 15.1 16.6 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 17.0 16.7 14.9 0.2 51.3 50.9 15.0 16.6 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.7 14.9 0.4 54.9 53.1 15.7 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 15.2 16.6 13.9 -0.1 48.7 49.3 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 14.4 16.4 16.1 0.5 55.1 52.7 14.1 15.7 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.8 13.4 0.1 48.4 50.0 14.6 15.8 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 16.4 16.6 16.4 0.4 54.3 52.1 14.8 15.9 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 9.0 10.7 10.7 0.1 50.0 49.8 8.7 10.7 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.7 15.8 0.1 49.9 50.6 15.0 16.7 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 14.9 16.6 16.1 0.5 55.7 52.9 14.9 16.2 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.5 16.4 0.4 52.3 51.7 15.0 16.4 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.5 15.9 14.9 0.2 48.6 50.8 15.1 15.9 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 16.7 16.5 14.7 0.3 52.3 51.7 15.7 16.4 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 14.5 15.8 13.0 -0.1 49.8 49.0 14.6 15.9 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 14.7 16.6 15.6 0.4 54.8 52.3 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 15.2 16.9 14.3 0.2 52.0 51.4 15.4 16.6 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.6 10.2 12.4 0.0 47.9 49.6 9.0 10.4 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 14.4 16.7 16.3 0.4 54.8 52.3 14.9 16.1 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------