***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2020.-05.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 83 17 0 100 14.0 12.3 11.8 -3.3 10.7 17.7 15.5 17.3 18.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 85 15 0 100 14.4 12.9 11.4 -3.7 7.4 14.4 16.1 17.4 18.0 30 Becej 27400G00 79 21 0 100 14.8 12.6 11.6 -3.8 8.3 16.0 16.0 17.0 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 83 17 0 100 6.0 5.0 8.6 -3.1 15.3 19.3 7.0 9.7 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 14.5 12.9 10.1 -3.6 11.7 17.2 16.1 17.2 18.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 13.5 12.6 8.5 -3.1 15.3 21.3 14.2 14.9 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 83 17 0 100 14.8 13.8 11.2 -3.7 8.4 14.3 15.8 17.0 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 83 17 0 100 2.2 0.6 7.9 -3.9 8.6 15.9 3.2 4.5 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 14.3 13.0 10.9 -3.7 9.3 16.4 15.8 16.6 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 80 20 0 100 14.0 12.7 9.0 -3.9 8.8 16.3 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 14.3 12.8 10.4 -3.8 10.1 16.3 15.7 16.7 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 84 16 0 100 13.1 11.7 9.0 -3.8 8.8 15.6 14.6 16.4 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 14.9 12.5 10.0 -3.7 8.2 16.0 15.6 16.8 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 87 13 0 100 14.1 11.8 10.2 -4.5 6.2 13.6 16.3 17.1 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 13.3 12.7 11.4 -2.7 15.8 20.0 14.8 16.6 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 15.1 13.6 10.0 -3.5 11.7 17.4 16.0 17.3 18.8 30 Nis 06700G01 91 9 0 100 13.8 12.8 10.7 -3.9 6.4 12.2 15.2 16.4 17.2 30 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 13.8 12.4 8.0 -4.1 8.6 15.9 15.6 16.8 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 83 17 0 100 14.3 12.3 11.4 -3.8 6.9 14.4 15.6 17.2 17.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 81 19 0 100 8.3 6.9 6.2 -3.6 10.4 17.9 10.3 11.1 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 14.6 12.7 11.6 -3.7 9.4 16.4 15.9 17.0 18.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 90 10 0 100 14.5 11.8 10.8 -4.0 5.2 12.2 15.8 17.2 17.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 83 17 0 100 14.9 11.5 11.3 -4.0 6.0 14.1 16.0 17.6 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 83 17 0 100 14.3 12.3 10.2 -4.2 7.2 14.7 15.9 17.4 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 14.6 13.0 10.7 -3.3 11.7 17.8 15.2 17.2 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 78 22 0 100 13.8 11.7 8.3 -3.5 6.9 15.1 15.0 16.0 17.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 85 15 0 100 15.0 13.7 11.2 -3.3 10.5 17.2 15.8 17.1 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 13.5 12.8 9.9 -2.9 16.6 20.6 14.7 16.5 18.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 82 18 0 100 7.7 6.7 7.4 -4.1 8.7 15.7 10.1 11.1 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 80 20 0 100 14.8 12.9 11.5 -3.6 8.9 15.7 15.8 17.2 17.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------