***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 5.5 5.6 6.1 -0.4 40.7 43.4 5.0 6.6 6.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.8 5.2 5.7 -0.5 39.1 40.6 5.1 5.4 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 7.2 7.4 6.2 -0.4 41.5 42.5 6.9 8.1 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 2.8 1.7 3.6 -0.2 45.6 45.8 1.2 2.5 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.4 4.1 -0.3 42.7 44.4 4.0 4.8 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.1 3.6 2.0 -0.1 46.7 47.9 2.9 3.8 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 5.3 5.2 5.7 -0.5 37.0 40.5 5.0 6.1 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -2.2 -2.0 1.9 -0.3 38.9 44.6 -2.3 -1.3 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.1 4.2 -0.3 41.9 44.6 4.9 5.7 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.8 5.1 2.6 -0.4 39.1 44.1 4.7 5.6 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.8 4.7 3.6 -0.3 40.9 44.5 4.5 5.6 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 4.5 3.4 2.8 -0.3 39.8 44.5 3.2 4.2 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.2 4.6 2.5 -0.3 43.5 44.4 3.9 5.0 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 5.4 5.6 3.9 -0.4 37.9 41.9 5.3 6.0 6.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.2 5.9 5.0 0.0 49.6 49.0 5.5 5.9 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.4 3.1 -0.3 43.5 45.4 4.9 5.7 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 5.4 5.3 5.5 -0.5 35.5 39.0 5.2 6.2 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 2.8 3.2 2.0 -0.3 39.6 45.4 2.9 3.5 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 5.1 5.3 5.7 -0.4 40.1 41.1 4.8 5.8 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 0.0 0.5 0.2 -0.3 39.3 46.6 0.3 0.7 1.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.0 5.0 5.5 -0.3 41.9 43.9 4.7 5.9 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.7 5.0 5.4 -0.5 38.1 39.7 4.6 5.3 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.7 5.1 5.6 -0.4 41.6 42.2 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.6 5.2 4.0 -0.3 41.2 44.1 4.7 5.4 5.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.1 5.1 -0.4 41.7 43.9 4.8 5.8 6.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.5 2.1 -0.3 43.0 44.1 3.9 4.8 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 6.6 5.8 5.6 -0.4 41.1 43.3 5.3 6.1 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.3 4.0 -0.2 46.8 47.2 3.5 4.7 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 1.8 2.2 1.4 -0.3 38.6 45.0 1.7 2.6 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 5.2 5.5 5.9 -0.4 40.1 41.7 5.4 6.1 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------