***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 8.7 8.4 8.9 1.1 66.1 63.5 6.5 8.1 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 8.8 8.2 8.5 1.0 65.6 63.1 6.2 7.4 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 10.3 10.0 8.9 1.1 66.5 64.5 8.4 9.3 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 5.3 5.3 6.3 1.1 66.1 64.7 2.7 4.3 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 6.9 7.2 6.4 1.0 66.7 64.6 4.4 5.8 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 6.1 5.5 4.4 1.0 68.1 64.2 3.7 4.7 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 8.5 8.1 8.5 1.0 65.0 62.7 6.3 7.7 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 0.7 0.5 4.3 0.9 64.5 63.1 -1.2 0.2 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 7.6 7.8 6.6 1.1 68.6 64.8 5.3 6.3 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 7.7 7.6 5.1 1.0 66.1 64.0 5.1 6.9 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 7.3 7.2 5.7 1.0 66.5 64.1 4.9 6.4 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 5.7 5.4 5.0 0.9 64.4 63.5 3.4 4.8 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 7.0 6.4 4.5 0.9 63.5 62.9 4.6 5.6 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 8.2 8.0 6.6 1.1 65.1 64.7 6.3 7.5 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 8.1 8.3 7.4 1.1 69.2 65.4 6.0 7.3 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 8.3 8.3 5.2 1.0 67.0 64.2 5.5 7.2 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 8.6 8.5 8.3 1.0 64.2 62.2 6.6 7.4 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 5.6 5.1 4.4 1.1 64.4 64.8 3.1 4.4 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 8.6 8.1 8.5 1.1 66.1 63.5 6.0 7.5 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.0 63.7 62.7 0.9 2.0 2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 7.7 8.0 8.0 1.1 67.3 64.7 5.3 6.6 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 7.7 7.8 8.1 1.0 64.7 63.0 5.8 6.8 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 8.0 8.3 8.4 1.1 66.7 64.2 5.6 6.9 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 7.2 7.3 6.4 1.1 66.2 65.7 5.2 6.4 7.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 8.0 8.0 7.5 1.1 64.3 63.6 4.9 7.1 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 6.6 6.1 4.1 0.8 62.7 61.4 4.7 5.4 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 8.5 8.1 8.2 1.0 64.5 62.9 5.6 7.4 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 6.4 6.2 6.5 1.1 69.0 65.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 5.1 4.8 3.8 1.0 62.8 63.6 3.0 4.5 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 8.8 8.4 8.7 1.1 65.7 63.6 6.6 7.7 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------