***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2020.-19.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 5.0 6.6 7.0 0.2 49.9 50.7 5.6 6.6 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.5 6.6 0.1 49.5 50.4 4.3 5.5 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.1 7.8 7.0 0.1 50.4 50.8 6.4 7.8 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 2.5 1.9 4.4 0.1 47.3 50.9 1.2 2.0 3.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.6 4.7 4.5 0.1 45.5 49.5 3.6 5.2 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.9 4.4 2.6 0.1 48.9 50.5 3.4 4.5 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.2 6.6 0.1 49.3 49.8 4.5 6.3 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -3.7 -2.1 2.5 0.0 41.5 49.3 -2.3 -1.7 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.4 5.7 4.8 0.1 46.6 50.1 4.3 6.1 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.2 5.7 3.3 0.0 43.1 49.6 4.3 6.2 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.3 5.4 3.9 0.0 43.4 48.4 4.4 6.0 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.9 4.2 3.3 0.0 42.9 49.1 3.5 4.6 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.6 4.9 2.7 0.0 42.5 48.8 4.4 5.5 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.7 6.0 4.7 0.1 49.7 51.2 4.1 6.0 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.6 5.5 0.2 48.6 51.5 5.8 6.7 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.7 6.2 3.4 0.0 43.9 48.9 5.2 6.3 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.8 6.6 6.5 0.1 50.4 50.8 5.1 6.6 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 2.5 3.7 2.7 0.1 46.2 51.4 2.3 4.0 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 6.4 6.1 6.7 0.2 51.2 50.8 4.2 6.0 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 -0.6 0.9 0.6 0.0 43.6 50.9 0.3 1.2 2.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.4 6.0 6.2 0.1 48.2 50.5 4.2 6.2 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.2 5.8 6.3 0.2 51.3 51.8 4.1 5.8 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.7 5.6 6.5 0.2 53.6 51.3 4.1 4.9 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.1 5.7 4.6 0.2 49.9 51.8 4.2 5.8 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.5 6.1 5.7 0.1 50.2 50.9 4.4 6.1 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.5 4.5 2.6 0.0 41.4 49.0 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.5 6.2 6.4 0.1 50.3 50.5 4.9 6.1 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.2 4.6 0.2 47.2 51.1 3.9 5.4 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 0.6 2.0 2.1 0.1 44.1 50.8 0.8 2.2 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.2 6.8 0.2 50.7 50.6 4.5 6.2 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------