***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2020.-12.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 4.7 5.6 5.3 -0.7 42.5 43.3 4.9 5.7 7.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 3.9 5.1 5.1 -0.6 43.0 43.8 4.9 5.5 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 6.3 7.2 5.4 -0.6 42.6 43.9 6.4 7.7 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 0.1 1.1 2.6 -0.6 42.3 43.9 0.6 1.6 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.6 4.2 3.2 -0.8 40.1 42.2 3.6 5.0 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 4.5 2.9 0.8 -0.9 35.6 41.5 2.8 4.2 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 4.3 5.3 5.0 -0.6 43.1 43.9 5.1 5.6 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -3.0 -2.4 0.8 -0.9 34.1 40.8 -2.4 -1.8 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 4.0 4.7 3.3 -0.8 37.7 40.7 4.4 5.4 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.4 4.7 1.6 -0.9 35.3 40.8 4.5 5.9 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.2 4.5 2.6 -0.9 35.8 40.9 4.3 5.6 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.6 3.5 1.7 -0.9 34.1 40.5 3.1 4.5 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.4 4.2 1.3 -1.1 32.0 37.9 4.3 5.1 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.9 5.3 3.2 -0.8 38.6 41.9 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 5.2 5.3 3.9 -0.7 39.3 42.5 5.2 5.8 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.6 5.6 2.0 -0.9 35.5 40.4 5.3 6.1 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.6 5.6 4.9 -0.6 43.4 44.3 4.7 6.1 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 2.7 3.0 1.2 -0.7 38.7 42.9 2.7 3.8 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 4.2 5.1 5.1 -0.6 41.7 43.6 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -0.2 0.4 -0.6 -0.8 35.4 42.2 0.3 0.8 1.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 4.0 4.9 4.6 -0.7 41.9 42.3 4.3 5.6 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.2 5.3 4.9 -0.5 41.2 44.3 4.4 5.6 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.2 4.9 4.9 -0.6 39.4 43.2 4.3 5.5 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.6 5.2 3.2 -0.6 40.8 43.2 4.8 5.6 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 4.0 5.6 4.3 -0.8 41.7 42.8 4.5 5.8 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 3.5 3.7 0.8 -1.2 30.3 37.9 3.8 4.9 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 3.8 5.7 4.9 -0.7 41.8 43.3 4.8 5.9 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.9 3.6 3.0 -0.7 40.8 43.3 3.2 4.0 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 1.3 1.2 0.4 -0.8 35.5 41.5 1.1 2.4 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 4.7 5.5 5.3 -0.6 43.6 44.0 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------