***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2020.-05.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 3.6 3.3 3.3 -2.0 15.7 25.2 3.9 4.6 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 3.6 2.2 2.7 -2.4 8.9 19.1 4.4 5.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 77 23 0 100 5.8 4.9 3.3 -2.2 11.7 21.9 6.6 7.4 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 -0.4 -0.4 1.1 -1.5 24.0 31.0 0.1 1.3 2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 2.3 1.9 2.1 -1.7 23.9 29.5 2.5 3.7 4.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 1.4 2.0 0.3 -0.9 37.5 40.2 1.4 3.1 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 83 17 0 100 3.5 2.6 2.7 -2.4 9.0 19.8 4.3 5.1 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 -3.9 -3.9 -0.1 -1.4 22.9 32.4 -3.0 -2.3 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 3.2 3.3 2.2 -1.5 22.9 30.3 4.0 4.6 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 3.1 2.7 0.6 -1.6 20.8 29.9 3.8 4.5 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 2.8 2.9 2.0 -1.4 25.6 32.0 3.2 4.0 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 1.0 1.3 1.0 -1.4 23.6 32.4 1.6 2.5 4.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.2 2.2 1.3 -1.1 30.2 36.3 2.5 3.6 4.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 80 20 0 100 3.5 2.8 1.3 -2.2 12.7 22.7 4.4 5.6 5.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 3.1 4.1 3.3 -0.8 35.7 39.6 4.0 4.9 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.3 3.9 1.6 -1.2 29.8 34.4 4.0 5.1 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 85 15 0 100 3.7 2.6 2.2 -2.7 7.1 16.3 4.5 5.2 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -1.7 19.2 27.6 1.6 2.4 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 81 19 0 100 3.3 2.3 2.7 -2.4 8.9 19.5 4.0 5.3 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 -1.6 -1.2 -1.5 -1.3 26.9 34.9 -0.9 0.1 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 2.9 2.7 3.1 -1.8 19.0 26.5 3.5 4.0 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 85 15 0 100 2.6 1.5 2.4 -2.7 6.1 15.6 3.6 4.4 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 80 20 0 100 2.8 2.1 2.8 -2.2 9.5 21.0 3.2 4.5 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 2.5 1.9 1.7 -2.0 14.6 24.1 3.4 4.4 5.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 3.5 3.0 2.8 -1.9 17.9 28.2 3.7 4.8 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.4 2.7 0.7 -0.9 33.4 38.9 2.6 3.7 4.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 3.8 3.2 3.0 -2.0 16.9 27.0 4.2 5.5 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 1.4 1.3 2.0 -1.2 29.6 34.6 1.7 3.0 3.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -1.5 20.0 30.0 1.3 2.0 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 80 20 0 100 3.8 2.9 3.0 -2.3 9.4 20.7 4.4 5.4 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------