***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2015.-26.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 52.5 62.2 59.8 126.9 68.2 62.5 37.6 48.9 61.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 29.8 49.6 55.2 116.7 70.0 59.7 31.6 39.5 48.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 58.8 62.3 57.2 119.7 66.1 60.9 43.5 56.8 62.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 72.9 77.8 66.5 117.6 67.7 60.0 58.8 68.4 75.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 59.1 56.3 64.3 116.9 65.3 59.6 43.2 53.9 57.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 35.6 63.4 72.5 107.8 62.2 56.0 37.5 46.4 64.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 27.8 52.3 55.5 116.2 67.3 58.8 26.1 38.0 51.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 81.8 96.2 69.2 115.4 68.1 60.7 63.1 72.1 84.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 59.9 61.7 66.1 122.7 69.8 62.4 34.8 50.3 61.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 66.5 78.9 71.3 117.1 67.5 61.3 40.0 61.8 77.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 65.8 68.3 60.8 117.0 69.2 60.9 40.8 57.5 67.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 39.4 61.3 59.3 116.2 67.4 60.1 35.6 50.6 60.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 40.4 59.0 62.8 108.0 60.6 55.5 42.6 54.3 64.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 62.5 63.6 67.9 116.0 64.8 60.1 51.3 59.5 64.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 55.4 58.1 58.3 108.0 60.1 54.9 39.6 50.6 62.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 41.5 64.7 61.8 113.6 67.3 58.6 45.9 57.3 64.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 30.0 44.8 54.8 117.9 69.0 59.3 30.2 37.8 43.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 59.6 67.5 78.6 116.6 67.2 61.2 40.7 56.3 67.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 44.5 56.1 55.4 117.2 69.5 60.4 32.0 38.6 51.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 56.6 60.2 85.4 116.9 67.5 62.0 40.5 51.4 58.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 55.2 56.3 61.6 127.0 71.6 64.0 37.6 44.8 48.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 46.6 50.1 55.6 118.2 68.5 60.4 33.1 44.5 49.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 55.5 54.9 57.6 119.2 69.8 61.7 37.4 45.0 52.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 60.2 65.5 68.8 117.0 65.9 61.0 44.8 57.4 65.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 56.1 63.6 70.7 122.4 67.8 61.7 41.0 53.0 62.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 35.8 48.5 58.9 108.1 58.3 55.8 38.1 47.8 52.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 55.9 61.4 67.9 124.0 68.6 61.6 41.9 52.2 59.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 55.5 54.8 60.6 110.0 61.6 56.1 36.0 49.2 62.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 82.2 92.9 82.0 118.2 67.6 62.0 57.6 75.8 90.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 45.7 48.9 55.8 117.3 68.1 59.6 31.6 43.3 47.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------