***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2015.-26.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.2 19.9 11.2 133.5 70.3 54.0 5.5 14.1 18.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.7 10.9 10.2 111.0 65.9 49.4 3.2 7.2 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.7 14.6 11.4 133.2 69.9 54.4 5.9 9.4 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.6 19.9 15.6 138.9 70.7 56.9 8.1 11.1 17.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.9 15.2 15.3 144.5 71.7 56.6 4.8 8.6 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 5.7 12.8 18.2 113.2 63.3 53.6 3.8 9.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 3.8 9.8 10.4 107.0 66.8 48.0 3.9 6.7 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.7 27.9 16.5 123.2 67.7 52.8 10.0 14.4 27.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.6 12.8 14.9 144.5 70.0 55.7 5.5 9.0 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.5 16.1 16.3 128.1 67.1 53.5 6.1 10.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.8 14.3 14.4 137.3 70.3 54.6 5.3 8.5 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.6 18.8 14.4 130.1 70.3 53.7 7.3 9.4 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 12.6 17.2 15.9 119.0 67.5 53.5 4.3 9.0 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.0 13.1 13.2 116.8 69.3 53.6 6.0 9.1 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.7 17.6 14.8 131.3 69.6 55.0 2.5 6.0 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.4 16.5 15.3 132.3 70.9 55.2 4.5 8.5 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.4 11.7 10.1 102.4 63.6 46.7 4.4 6.4 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 8.1 18.4 17.1 119.4 65.8 53.7 6.8 13.8 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.9 15.7 10.1 114.7 66.8 50.5 3.0 6.9 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.1 13.8 19.3 120.5 64.9 54.0 4.7 10.4 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.1 13.5 12.8 142.7 72.1 56.0 3.5 7.5 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 3.4 11.6 9.8 102.1 64.5 46.6 4.0 7.7 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.4 12.0 10.3 119.2 69.1 52.6 2.7 6.0 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.1 19.5 14.3 122.7 68.5 53.9 4.8 9.2 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.7 16.6 14.5 129.9 65.8 55.0 5.2 8.9 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 11.5 14.4 14.3 123.2 70.2 54.0 2.4 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.6 14.3 13.0 124.0 66.0 52.9 3.8 8.1 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.2 18.0 15.6 134.9 70.3 56.4 4.6 7.6 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.4 20.4 16.9 115.4 64.3 53.0 7.7 15.2 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 5.3 11.6 10.5 118.9 65.8 51.3 4.1 8.4 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------