***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 12.7 18.9 15.0 123.2 69.0 58.4 7.5 10.7 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 10.9 15.7 13.5 111.6 67.3 54.6 5.6 9.4 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 16.2 20.9 14.0 116.0 67.8 57.4 11.3 13.9 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 13.4 23.8 16.2 104.6 67.1 53.3 14.2 19.6 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 18.2 21.4 16.0 106.4 65.9 54.5 10.9 14.8 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 14.8 22.6 21.3 114.8 69.3 58.4 7.4 10.8 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 12.5 14.0 13.6 112.6 65.0 54.5 4.9 10.6 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 28.2 28.2 17.9 112.4 62.3 56.6 19.4 25.9 28.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 18.2 20.8 16.2 112.1 66.4 56.6 8.8 14.8 20.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 19.4 21.0 18.5 114.5 64.9 57.0 12.2 18.0 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 19.1 22.1 15.3 108.0 64.8 55.5 10.5 16.9 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 16.7 19.5 14.9 110.6 64.6 56.1 8.2 13.8 20.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 22.3 26.9 17.6 113.0 68.5 56.4 12.3 19.6 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 20.7 21.6 17.8 118.3 65.5 57.9 14.2 18.1 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.9 15.9 15.0 106.2 65.0 53.9 9.0 14.3 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 18.3 24.1 16.1 108.7 66.6 54.9 9.4 15.1 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 12.5 13.5 13.3 111.4 69.3 55.0 5.3 10.3 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 16.0 17.6 21.4 123.7 68.3 59.0 10.3 14.6 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 12.2 15.6 13.4 110.9 67.5 55.6 6.4 10.6 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.7 14.9 22.9 117.3 65.1 57.3 8.7 10.5 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 17.6 25.2 15.0 119.2 66.2 58.3 9.4 15.4 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 13.8 14.2 13.1 107.2 65.0 55.4 6.8 11.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 13.8 20.1 14.0 113.2 69.2 57.1 7.8 12.1 19.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 18.2 20.9 18.0 121.6 67.1 58.9 9.7 14.6 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 17.8 22.9 18.0 116.6 65.9 56.8 7.8 16.3 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 15.5 20.3 15.7 107.3 65.7 56.1 4.9 13.0 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 15.5 17.7 17.2 119.8 66.4 57.1 8.8 13.6 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 15.4 21.3 15.2 102.3 64.4 52.6 6.9 11.4 21.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.6 27.5 22.5 125.4 68.5 59.3 13.1 20.0 26.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 12.9 15.5 13.7 113.5 66.1 54.9 5.0 11.4 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------