***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 14.0 12.3 17.4 136.1 70.1 62.7 5.4 8.7 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 9.3 15.4 17.8 132.8 71.9 61.7 3.0 7.4 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 10.8 14.7 16.3 126.7 68.9 61.3 6.3 9.3 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 18.3 21.8 18.5 140.0 73.3 62.1 8.5 17.2 21.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 13.7 23.8 17.2 134.6 71.8 59.6 4.8 9.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 17.3 15.2 18.8 119.1 69.4 59.8 3.2 7.6 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 5.5 10.3 17.6 131.7 68.8 61.3 1.9 3.6 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 26.1 30.0 19.0 142.9 76.2 63.8 10.0 18.4 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.4 13.6 17.2 133.6 71.1 60.1 5.0 9.4 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.0 20.2 18.5 131.8 71.3 60.9 8.0 12.0 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 16.7 19.2 16.5 143.1 75.4 63.0 4.9 7.4 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 15.1 17.9 16.5 148.5 76.5 64.4 3.0 8.9 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 17.0 20.0 16.9 129.9 69.7 60.4 3.8 7.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 18.6 20.3 18.8 119.1 66.2 57.6 9.7 16.9 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 14.3 13.4 17.4 134.8 72.6 61.0 1.5 7.3 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 18.1 20.8 16.5 138.6 74.0 63.0 3.5 8.5 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 6.8 13.2 17.8 138.2 72.4 63.1 3.3 4.8 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.2 17.0 20.1 123.1 66.8 59.5 5.7 11.3 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 11.8 17.4 17.7 132.2 72.2 61.8 5.8 9.8 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 18.4 20.0 24.8 143.0 76.2 66.0 6.1 9.3 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 9.7 14.8 16.6 137.9 73.8 61.9 5.3 8.3 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 12.6 14.4 18.4 141.0 72.1 64.2 6.0 8.1 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 17.8 20.5 17.7 131.2 73.2 62.2 6.7 10.1 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 12.6 15.9 18.0 119.5 65.3 58.2 8.0 10.8 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.9 16.0 19.7 132.6 71.0 59.7 6.4 8.9 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 16.5 14.8 17.6 144.5 70.3 64.2 3.5 8.4 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 11.8 13.9 19.2 131.5 68.6 60.4 6.0 9.8 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 18.4 19.3 16.8 133.7 72.3 60.8 3.1 10.3 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 16.8 21.9 22.3 130.3 70.3 61.7 8.9 13.4 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 8.2 11.5 17.4 129.3 69.8 61.4 3.9 6.4 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------