***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2015.-05.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 3.1 6.6 16.3 117.8 67.6 63.7 0.6 1.8 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 5.0 9.8 13.7 108.7 67.7 61.6 1.0 3.3 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 6.1 10.1 15.5 108.5 66.8 60.7 2.5 4.7 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.4 15.3 16.2 97.7 66.3 54.8 6.9 9.1 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.9 8.0 15.8 95.4 61.9 53.8 2.4 4.9 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.1 6.7 14.2 84.6 47.2 44.6 3.9 7.0 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 4.6 8.7 14.0 110.6 68.1 63.8 0.5 3.4 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.7 11.5 15.8 91.1 58.9 52.3 4.9 9.5 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 5.7 7.5 17.8 109.7 69.8 60.0 1.5 4.7 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 7.4 8.7 17.9 100.7 65.2 56.3 2.4 5.3 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.9 14.7 93.0 59.8 53.4 1.5 4.1 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.9 7.1 13.4 87.8 57.3 51.3 2.4 5.8 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.2 4.4 12.4 76.7 43.8 42.2 3.0 5.1 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 6.7 10.6 18.1 110.5 65.9 59.9 2.2 4.2 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 3.7 7.4 11.1 71.0 50.1 42.7 3.4 7.4 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.5 6.1 13.8 86.4 52.1 48.1 2.3 5.3 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 6.5 5.3 13.6 115.3 68.5 64.9 0.7 3.0 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 4.7 6.6 19.9 102.7 64.6 57.6 1.4 3.2 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 3.9 8.2 14.2 109.5 67.7 61.0 0.7 3.0 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.1 8.8 18.4 91.3 57.3 51.6 3.0 7.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 9.8 12.0 17.1 115.3 71.2 62.9 0.8 5.4 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 46 54 100 7.9 7.1 14.3 117.7 68.9 64.4 1.3 2.9 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 6.7 9.6 15.6 112.9 69.5 62.3 2.1 5.2 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 7.5 11.4 18.5 107.1 66.2 59.3 2.1 6.3 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 7.2 8.0 18.5 113.7 67.4 61.7 3.1 5.3 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 2.7 4.7 11.3 70.3 41.3 38.3 1.9 7.6 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 46 54 100 7.5 7.6 18.5 121.2 68.8 64.5 1.5 2.8 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.2 7.0 13.0 80.3 54.2 46.1 2.9 6.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 10.4 13.1 20.3 103.3 63.9 57.4 5.9 8.8 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 4.4 6.1 14.1 107.5 66.6 61.2 1.0 2.7 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------