***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2015.-26.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 18.0 19.1 18.6 -0.7 44.9 45.2 18.7 19.4 20.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 17.7 19.1 18.4 -0.6 42.9 44.9 18.4 19.6 20.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 17.7 19.1 18.6 -0.8 41.4 44.6 18.5 19.6 20.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 10.2 11.1 16.9 -0.6 42.6 45.4 10.8 12.2 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 18.1 19.2 17.1 -0.7 41.5 44.7 18.9 19.5 20.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 16.2 17.7 15.3 -0.6 41.0 45.6 17.1 17.9 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 17.6 18.9 18.4 -0.6 43.0 45.4 17.5 19.3 19.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 5.7 6.6 15.6 -0.8 40.8 44.2 6.4 7.5 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 17.4 18.8 17.5 -0.8 40.5 44.5 18.4 18.9 19.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 17.6 18.6 16.4 -0.8 40.9 44.3 18.3 18.9 19.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 18.0 18.5 16.7 -0.7 41.0 44.3 18.2 19.3 20.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 16.3 18.1 16.4 -0.8 41.1 43.9 17.7 18.5 20.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 17.2 18.9 15.9 -0.7 39.7 44.2 18.5 19.1 20.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 18.1 19.4 17.4 -0.8 40.8 44.7 18.5 19.7 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 17.2 18.6 17.2 -0.5 44.4 46.2 18.3 18.9 20.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 17.8 19.2 16.4 -0.7 40.7 44.7 19.0 19.3 20.5 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 17.2 18.2 18.3 -0.6 43.2 45.5 17.4 19.2 19.7 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 17.3 18.2 15.8 -0.9 41.2 44.1 17.7 18.5 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 17.7 18.9 18.5 -0.7 41.7 44.8 18.2 19.4 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 12.2 13.3 13.4 -0.9 41.5 43.9 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 17.7 19.1 18.2 -0.8 43.0 44.6 18.6 19.5 20.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 17.9 19.3 18.3 -0.6 42.0 45.4 18.1 19.7 20.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 17.9 19.3 18.4 -0.8 40.0 44.6 18.6 19.7 20.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 17.4 18.6 17.3 -0.8 40.5 44.3 18.2 19.1 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 17.5 18.5 17.2 -0.6 44.7 45.2 18.2 19.4 20.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 16.8 18.0 15.5 -0.8 37.4 43.7 17.8 18.5 20.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 17.4 18.8 17.9 -0.6 44.3 45.3 17.8 18.9 20.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 17.3 18.6 17.1 -0.6 42.0 45.5 17.9 19.2 20.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 12.4 13.5 14.7 -0.9 41.5 44.0 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 17.5 18.8 18.6 -0.7 42.7 44.8 17.7 19.4 20.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------