***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.2 16.3 -0.5 46.1 46.1 15.5 16.3 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 14.9 15.9 16.2 -0.6 46.2 45.1 14.8 16.6 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.7 15.9 16.4 -0.5 45.6 45.6 15.3 16.2 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.0 14.8 -0.3 44.9 46.7 8.3 9.3 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 17.2 16.4 15.0 -0.4 44.9 46.4 15.7 17.0 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.2 13.2 -0.4 47.4 47.1 14.2 15.4 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 14.7 15.6 16.3 -0.5 46.4 45.6 14.8 16.2 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.3 3.8 13.5 -0.6 43.2 44.7 3.0 5.1 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.0 15.3 -0.5 43.9 45.9 15.0 16.7 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.0 14.2 -0.6 43.5 45.0 15.4 16.3 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 17.1 16.6 14.6 -0.4 45.3 46.3 15.1 16.8 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.0 14.3 -0.5 43.7 45.5 14.2 15.6 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 17.0 16.4 13.8 -0.5 46.0 46.3 15.1 16.6 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 14.8 15.6 15.1 -0.8 42.0 43.7 15.0 16.6 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.6 15.1 -0.3 44.7 46.7 15.7 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 17.3 16.6 14.3 -0.4 46.6 46.8 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 14.4 15.3 16.0 -0.6 46.3 45.1 14.1 15.7 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 16.3 15.0 13.5 -0.7 40.7 43.7 14.6 15.8 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 14.5 15.4 16.3 -0.6 45.8 45.0 14.8 15.9 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 8.9 9.1 11.2 -0.9 40.3 42.6 8.7 10.7 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.3 16.0 -0.5 44.6 46.0 15.0 16.7 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 14.7 15.9 16.1 -0.7 44.3 44.5 14.9 16.2 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.8 15.8 16.2 -0.7 43.3 44.8 15.0 16.4 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.5 15.5 15.0 -0.7 41.8 44.4 15.1 15.9 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.2 15.0 -0.4 45.2 46.3 15.7 16.4 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 16.3 15.4 13.5 -0.5 46.3 45.7 14.6 15.9 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.0 15.7 -0.4 46.7 46.3 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 16.9 16.4 15.0 -0.3 45.3 46.9 15.4 16.6 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.6 9.6 12.5 -0.8 39.9 42.9 9.0 10.4 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 14.4 15.4 16.3 -0.5 45.5 45.3 14.9 16.1 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------