***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 14.5 16.5 14.8 -0.3 47.7 46.5 14.4 16.6 18.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 14.6 15.9 14.5 -0.4 45.2 45.1 15.0 16.6 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 14.9 17.0 14.9 -0.4 45.3 46.0 14.7 17.2 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.4 10.5 13.3 -0.3 49.4 47.0 7.1 10.5 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 15.4 16.9 13.5 -0.3 47.0 46.7 14.9 17.7 20.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 17.6 17.2 12.2 0.1 50.9 51.0 14.3 16.8 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 14.7 16.6 14.5 -0.4 48.1 45.7 14.7 16.8 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 3.2 4.0 11.8 -0.6 42.1 44.9 3.0 5.5 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 14.7 16.4 13.9 -0.4 45.8 46.3 14.9 16.9 19.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 15.1 16.3 12.7 -0.5 43.9 45.5 14.9 17.8 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 15.1 16.5 13.1 -0.4 46.3 46.9 15.2 17.4 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 14.6 15.0 12.8 -0.5 44.4 46.1 14.2 17.0 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 18.2 16.1 12.6 -0.2 46.5 48.1 15.3 17.3 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 15.0 15.0 13.6 -0.6 40.9 44.7 14.6 16.8 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 18.4 17.7 13.6 -0.3 48.0 47.8 15.8 17.8 19.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 18.7 17.2 13.0 -0.2 46.5 48.3 15.5 18.0 20.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 14.2 15.5 14.3 -0.5 44.3 44.6 14.2 16.1 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 14.1 14.7 11.9 -0.7 39.8 44.6 14.4 16.7 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 14.7 15.9 14.7 -0.5 45.2 45.1 14.5 16.5 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 8.9 9.5 9.4 -1.0 36.5 42.5 9.4 12.3 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 14.9 16.5 14.5 -0.3 46.5 46.3 15.2 17.0 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 14.7 15.8 14.3 -0.6 42.8 43.7 14.7 16.3 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 15.0 16.0 14.7 -0.5 45.7 45.2 14.7 16.5 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 14.8 15.2 13.5 -0.5 42.2 45.3 14.4 16.8 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 15.4 17.1 13.4 -0.3 47.1 46.0 15.2 17.2 18.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 17.6 15.2 12.2 -0.3 45.1 47.6 14.8 16.8 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 15.3 17.0 14.1 -0.3 48.9 46.7 15.0 17.1 18.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 18.3 17.6 13.6 -0.2 49.6 48.3 15.9 17.6 19.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 9.2 9.8 10.8 -0.8 38.4 43.9 9.5 12.1 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 14.5 16.4 14.7 -0.4 45.7 45.5 14.6 16.7 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------