***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2015.-05.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 15.2 16.7 13.1 -0.9 37.6 38.3 15.5 17.3 18.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 17.6 16.1 13.1 -0.8 35.4 38.2 16.1 17.4 18.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 17.4 16.6 13.7 -0.5 43.2 42.6 16.0 17.0 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 10.0 9.4 11.5 -0.1 47.5 47.5 7.0 9.7 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 17.7 16.7 12.5 -0.1 47.6 47.1 16.1 17.2 18.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 15.4 14.6 10.0 -0.3 46.0 44.8 14.2 14.9 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 15.6 15.7 12.7 -1.1 31.1 34.5 15.8 17.0 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 5.0 4.2 10.9 0.1 46.7 48.0 3.2 4.5 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 17.1 16.3 13.5 0.0 46.7 47.8 15.8 16.6 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 17.5 16.9 11.9 0.0 46.0 47.4 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 17.2 16.7 12.4 0.1 49.7 49.1 15.7 16.7 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 16.8 16.4 11.7 0.2 49.6 49.3 14.6 16.4 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 17.2 16.6 11.3 -0.2 45.9 44.8 15.6 16.8 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 17.4 17.1 13.7 0.4 50.6 50.9 16.3 17.1 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 16.9 16.5 13.0 0.0 49.1 48.7 14.8 16.6 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 17.7 17.0 11.8 -0.1 47.1 46.2 16.0 17.3 18.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 16.7 15.4 12.8 -0.9 34.6 36.0 15.2 16.4 17.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 17.2 16.0 11.0 -0.2 43.3 45.2 15.6 16.8 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 17.4 16.4 13.5 -0.6 39.4 41.4 15.6 17.2 17.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 9.3 10.6 8.2 -0.6 37.1 40.6 10.3 11.1 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 17.4 16.6 13.8 -0.3 46.0 45.3 15.9 17.0 18.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 17.5 16.5 13.5 -0.4 39.9 41.9 15.8 17.2 17.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 17.9 17.4 14.0 -0.2 44.5 45.4 16.0 17.6 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 17.7 17.0 13.0 0.0 47.6 47.5 15.9 17.4 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 17.6 15.9 12.0 -0.8 37.8 39.8 15.2 17.2 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 16.4 15.8 10.5 -0.1 46.5 45.5 15.0 16.0 17.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 15.8 15.9 12.3 -1.2 33.8 35.4 15.8 17.1 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 16.9 16.5 12.3 0.1 50.1 49.8 14.7 16.5 18.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.8 10.6 10.1 -0.3 40.5 43.5 10.1 11.1 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 17.5 15.9 13.3 -0.8 35.9 38.4 15.8 17.2 17.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------