***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2015.-26.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 6.7 5.7 6.0 -0.1 43.9 45.8 5.0 6.6 6.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.4 6.1 0.1 50.1 50.1 5.1 5.4 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.8 5.9 -0.1 45.5 46.5 6.9 8.1 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 1.4 1.6 3.5 -0.2 39.2 43.6 1.2 2.5 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.0 4.0 3.6 -0.3 36.6 43.1 4.0 4.8 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.0 1.8 -0.3 39.7 43.2 2.9 3.8 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.3 6.1 6.1 0.1 49.6 50.5 5.0 6.1 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 -2.3 -2.3 1.8 -0.5 33.2 38.2 -2.3 -1.3 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.0 4.1 -0.2 39.4 44.4 4.9 5.7 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.8 4.9 2.5 -0.4 35.4 40.0 4.7 5.6 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.8 4.6 3.1 -0.3 36.5 41.4 4.5 5.6 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.3 3.3 2.6 -0.4 34.8 39.9 3.2 4.2 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.3 4.4 2.3 -0.3 39.6 41.8 3.9 5.0 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 6.3 5.8 4.3 -0.2 41.5 43.6 5.3 6.0 6.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 6.2 5.8 4.4 0.0 48.4 48.7 5.5 5.9 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 5.1 5.1 2.8 -0.3 38.5 41.8 4.9 5.7 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.2 6.0 0.1 51.8 51.1 5.2 6.2 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 2.7 2.9 1.8 -0.5 34.6 37.9 2.9 3.5 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.7 6.0 0.0 48.6 48.8 4.8 5.8 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 -0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.7 30.7 34.9 0.3 0.7 1.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 6.1 5.2 5.2 -0.1 42.7 45.5 4.7 5.9 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 5.5 5.3 6.0 0.1 52.0 50.5 4.6 5.3 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 5.6 5.2 5.6 0.0 45.6 46.3 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.6 5.2 3.9 -0.2 41.2 42.6 4.7 5.4 5.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 5.0 4.8 4.4 -0.3 35.9 43.2 4.8 5.8 6.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.2 4.0 2.3 -0.4 38.1 40.9 3.9 4.8 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.5 5.8 5.2 -0.2 40.1 44.9 5.3 6.1 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 4.8 3.9 3.9 -0.1 44.5 46.5 3.5 4.7 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 1.6 1.6 1.1 -0.6 31.9 35.4 1.7 2.6 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.4 5.9 6.1 0.0 47.7 48.8 5.4 6.1 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------