***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2015.-26.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 6.3 7.0 8.2 -0.3 38.6 44.7 6.5 8.1 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 5.7 6.5 8.1 -0.3 40.9 44.5 6.2 7.4 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 7.9 8.8 7.9 -0.3 40.2 44.1 8.4 9.3 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 2.6 2.9 5.8 -0.3 38.9 44.9 2.7 4.3 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 4.0 4.7 5.8 -0.3 39.8 44.7 4.4 5.8 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.7 4.4 4.0 -0.3 46.1 46.4 3.7 4.7 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 6.1 7.1 8.2 -0.3 40.0 45.1 6.3 7.7 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 0.4 -0.5 4.1 -0.3 42.2 45.3 -1.2 0.2 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 4.8 5.7 6.2 -0.3 40.9 44.9 5.3 6.3 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.6 5.8 4.7 -0.4 40.6 44.5 5.1 6.9 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 6.8 5.6 5.3 -0.3 41.5 44.8 4.9 6.4 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.1 4.9 -0.4 40.6 44.6 3.4 4.8 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.5 5.4 4.4 -0.4 42.1 44.1 4.6 5.6 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.1 6.7 6.3 -0.4 40.0 42.8 6.3 7.5 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.6 6.6 6.3 -0.2 41.5 45.8 6.0 7.3 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.6 6.6 5.0 -0.3 42.6 44.9 5.5 7.2 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 6.0 7.1 8.0 -0.3 41.1 44.8 6.6 7.4 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.5 4.0 4.1 -0.5 40.7 42.8 3.1 4.4 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 5.8 6.8 8.0 -0.3 41.6 44.3 6.0 7.5 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 0.7 1.6 2.5 -0.4 43.8 44.7 0.9 2.0 2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.8 5.6 7.3 -0.3 40.1 44.9 5.3 6.6 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 5.0 6.5 8.0 -0.3 42.6 44.1 5.8 6.8 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 5.8 6.1 7.7 -0.3 41.6 44.2 5.6 6.9 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.2 5.7 6.0 -0.4 40.3 42.7 5.2 6.4 7.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 5.3 5.7 6.5 -0.4 38.7 43.9 4.9 7.1 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.3 4.6 -0.4 41.6 43.8 4.7 5.4 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 5.3 6.9 7.4 -0.3 38.6 44.1 5.6 7.4 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.1 4.8 6.0 -0.2 41.6 46.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 3.2 3.9 3.5 -0.5 41.5 42.7 3.0 4.5 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 5.9 6.9 8.2 -0.3 40.6 44.5 6.6 7.7 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------