***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 6.9 6.4 6.2 -0.4 42.6 44.6 5.6 6.6 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 5.9 5.4 6.3 -0.2 43.7 46.4 4.3 5.5 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.1 7.4 6.1 -0.3 41.9 44.9 6.4 7.8 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 0.3 1.8 3.9 -0.4 42.1 43.4 1.2 2.0 3.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.6 4.5 3.8 -0.4 40.0 43.3 3.6 5.2 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.9 4.2 2.3 -0.2 46.9 46.0 3.4 4.5 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 6.5 5.6 6.4 -0.2 43.5 46.7 4.5 6.3 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -1.4 -2.1 2.2 -0.6 40.2 41.6 -2.3 -1.7 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.4 5.3 4.3 -0.4 42.5 43.9 4.3 6.1 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 6.5 5.5 2.8 -0.5 40.8 42.4 4.3 6.2 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.3 5.0 3.4 -0.5 39.7 42.6 4.4 6.0 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.0 3.0 -0.5 39.5 41.9 3.5 4.6 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 5.8 4.9 2.6 -0.4 40.6 43.1 4.4 5.5 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 6.5 4.6 4.3 -0.6 36.8 41.0 4.1 6.0 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.0 6.2 4.5 -0.2 44.9 45.3 5.8 6.7 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.0 3.1 -0.4 41.3 43.4 5.2 6.3 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.8 6.4 6.2 -0.2 44.5 47.4 5.1 6.6 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 2.6 3.4 2.2 -0.6 37.8 40.8 2.3 4.0 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 6.3 5.1 6.2 -0.3 43.0 45.7 4.2 6.0 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -0.5 0.7 0.4 -0.8 37.8 39.8 0.3 1.2 2.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.3 5.9 5.4 -0.4 42.7 43.8 4.2 6.2 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 6.0 5.5 6.1 -0.2 44.5 46.8 4.1 5.8 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 5.5 4.4 5.8 -0.4 40.1 44.3 4.1 4.9 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.1 4.8 4.1 -0.5 38.5 42.1 4.2 5.8 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.5 5.6 4.6 -0.5 41.1 43.7 4.4 6.1 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 5.5 4.4 2.9 -0.5 40.1 42.8 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.5 5.3 5.5 -0.4 42.0 44.7 4.9 6.1 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.0 4.2 -0.3 44.6 44.7 3.9 5.4 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 0.8 1.2 1.5 -0.7 35.0 39.1 0.8 2.2 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 6.5 5.6 6.4 -0.3 42.4 45.8 4.5 6.2 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------