***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 6.2 5.7 5.4 0.2 50.4 50.6 4.9 5.7 7.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 5.8 5.2 5.2 0.1 48.3 50.8 4.9 5.5 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 8.2 7.6 5.1 0.1 47.4 49.7 6.4 7.7 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 2.6 1.0 2.5 -0.4 40.9 43.9 0.6 1.6 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.3 4.5 2.7 -0.2 42.7 45.6 3.6 5.0 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.7 4.0 0.9 -0.3 45.5 44.7 2.8 4.2 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 6.0 5.5 5.3 0.2 48.8 51.5 5.1 5.6 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -1.3 -2.2 1.1 -0.3 40.0 44.6 -2.4 -1.8 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 5.8 5.2 3.3 0.0 46.5 47.8 4.4 5.4 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 6.2 5.1 1.8 -0.2 42.5 45.5 4.5 5.9 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.0 2.2 -0.3 40.9 44.7 4.3 5.6 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 4.7 3.8 2.0 -0.2 42.4 45.4 3.1 4.5 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.0 1.5 -0.3 45.2 45.3 4.3 5.1 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 6.4 5.7 3.4 -0.1 45.2 47.9 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 5.2 5.3 3.2 -0.3 41.2 44.1 5.2 5.8 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.5 5.9 1.9 -0.3 43.2 44.6 5.3 6.1 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 6.4 6.0 5.1 0.1 47.4 50.7 4.7 6.1 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 4.1 3.2 1.1 -0.2 42.1 45.0 2.7 3.8 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 5.9 5.3 5.1 0.1 47.5 50.3 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -0.2 0.4 -0.8 -0.5 37.1 42.7 0.3 0.8 1.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.3 4.4 0.1 46.6 48.8 4.3 5.6 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 5.8 5.5 5.1 0.1 48.5 50.6 4.4 5.6 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 5.8 5.4 4.8 0.0 47.2 49.6 4.3 5.5 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 5.8 5.2 3.1 -0.1 44.9 47.4 4.8 5.6 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.3 5.6 3.5 -0.2 45.0 46.6 4.5 5.8 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.7 1.7 -0.3 43.3 45.6 3.8 4.9 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.5 5.9 4.6 0.0 48.8 49.4 4.8 5.9 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.0 3.6 2.8 -0.4 40.7 43.9 3.2 4.0 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 3.0 1.6 0.5 -0.3 40.1 44.4 1.1 2.4 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 6.3 5.8 5.3 0.2 48.5 50.8 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------