***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2015.-05.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 5.0 4.5 4.3 0.1 48.1 49.4 3.9 4.6 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 5.2 5.5 4.7 0.7 63.9 60.9 4.4 5.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 7.6 7.6 4.4 0.3 55.7 53.7 6.6 7.4 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 1.6 1.3 1.8 0.1 48.4 49.6 0.1 1.3 2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 4.0 3.6 2.1 -0.1 47.3 47.9 2.5 3.7 4.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 3.4 2.1 -0.2 -0.3 39.4 41.1 1.4 3.1 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 5.3 5.6 4.6 0.6 62.1 59.4 4.3 5.1 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 -3.8 -3.0 -0.3 -0.6 31.8 34.3 -3.0 -2.3 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 4.8 4.6 2.7 0.0 47.2 49.4 4.0 4.6 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.0 4.1 0.7 -0.4 38.6 41.1 3.8 4.5 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 4.5 3.6 1.5 -0.2 42.0 44.2 3.2 4.0 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 1.2 1.8 0.5 -0.5 35.8 37.5 1.6 2.5 4.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 4.0 3.0 0.6 -0.3 38.9 42.2 2.5 3.6 4.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 5.8 5.6 3.0 0.3 54.3 52.9 4.4 5.6 5.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 5.1 5.3 3.7 0.7 61.6 60.2 4.0 4.9 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.4 4.5 1.1 -0.3 40.8 43.7 4.0 5.1 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 5.4 5.8 4.6 0.8 64.3 62.4 4.5 5.2 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 2.6 1.7 -0.2 -0.5 38.2 39.5 1.6 2.4 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 5.4 5.5 4.6 0.6 61.8 59.3 4.0 5.3 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 -1.5 -1.3 -2.6 -1.0 24.7 30.3 -0.9 0.1 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 4.3 4.0 3.9 0.1 49.6 51.1 3.5 4.0 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 45 55 100 5.0 4.9 4.7 0.8 63.8 62.2 3.6 4.4 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 4.6 4.8 4.2 0.4 56.2 55.1 3.2 4.5 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 4.7 4.2 2.5 0.1 48.0 49.0 3.4 4.4 5.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 5.1 4.4 3.0 0.0 44.7 47.3 3.7 4.8 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.1 2.9 0.2 -0.3 38.4 39.9 2.6 3.7 4.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 5.8 5.1 3.5 0.0 48.3 49.0 4.2 5.5 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 3.2 3.4 2.6 0.4 55.8 55.5 1.7 3.0 3.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 0.5 0.9 -1.1 -0.9 29.8 34.1 1.3 2.0 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 5.7 5.7 4.7 0.5 59.8 57.7 4.4 5.4 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------