***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.03.2021.-25.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 38.0 50.1 51.4 90.1 45.9 44.1 40.5 52.3 58.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 28.5 35.7 46.1 88.2 45.2 42.4 29.5 38.1 48.4 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 38.2 52.6 48.5 86.4 42.1 41.8 45.2 53.8 61.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 74.3 62.3 55.1 83.4 40.4 41.7 55.9 68.9 81.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 57.8 45.8 51.7 84.2 40.5 41.4 44.0 52.4 58.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 53.1 43.5 56.1 84.1 40.1 40.7 37.5 46.9 64.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 23.2 29.3 45.5 87.9 43.4 42.8 25.5 33.3 51.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 63.4 63.8 54.2 83.1 37.3 39.4 62.9 71.3 82.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 54.6 36.5 52.6 85.0 39.6 41.0 34.9 50.3 61.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 39.9 43.7 57.5 85.1 38.9 40.8 40.0 54.8 77.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 61.9 44.9 49.2 82.9 39.6 40.6 40.7 58.1 67.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 50.2 40.0 47.8 82.7 39.1 40.2 35.9 45.6 61.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 58.1 44.2 52.4 81.7 39.0 39.7 42.0 52.4 63.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 45.9 58.2 62.9 88.3 40.8 42.9 50.7 59.4 64.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 56.1 46.1 51.1 83.3 42.3 42.7 38.7 50.6 65.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 58.6 52.2 50.5 82.4 39.5 40.8 45.9 55.8 64.3 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 28.0 36.4 44.3 87.5 46.8 43.1 30.2 37.0 44.1 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 36.8 43.5 59.8 85.0 38.1 40.4 39.1 48.4 61.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 29.8 33.8 46.8 88.0 44.5 42.0 31.1 36.7 55.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 36.9 42.1 59.7 80.9 34.8 37.3 41.5 52.3 64.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 36.6 39.2 51.0 86.1 41.4 42.3 37.6 43.7 51.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 29.5 42.7 47.4 88.6 46.9 43.5 29.9 43.2 49.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 33.0 41.4 48.1 87.3 43.5 41.9 37.3 43.1 52.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 40.9 49.8 56.0 85.0 38.0 40.8 44.5 56.6 61.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 43.2 47.6 57.6 89.2 44.4 43.7 44.2 51.8 62.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 36.5 40.4 48.2 78.4 33.8 36.6 39.7 47.8 53.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 37.0 47.0 55.5 91.3 46.6 44.7 43.9 50.6 58.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 55.3 40.7 51.5 80.5 38.5 40.2 36.0 48.8 59.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 56.0 56.0 59.4 83.3 36.8 39.2 54.7 73.8 87.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 29.9 37.2 47.4 88.6 43.5 42.2 29.0 41.7 47.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------