***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.04.2021.-25.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 8.5 12.9 14.1 87.9 49.7 42.0 8.3 13.1 19.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 3.4 7.8 13.7 90.6 51.4 44.1 4.2 7.8 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 5.9 9.1 13.8 85.1 50.5 41.6 6.0 9.1 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 10.7 15.7 15.4 77.5 51.8 42.3 10.7 15.2 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 5.7 10.3 14.6 79.8 51.5 41.9 5.3 10.0 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 4.5 11.6 17.8 87.6 55.8 42.0 6.2 9.8 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.7 6.9 13.0 88.9 51.6 44.7 4.3 6.9 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 10.9 14.0 14.3 76.1 47.1 38.6 11.6 14.7 22.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 5.6 9.5 15.0 80.2 48.7 41.1 7.2 9.6 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 6.0 11.0 16.1 78.9 47.7 39.4 8.7 12.3 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 5.4 11.8 12.8 75.5 48.8 39.4 8.6 11.9 19.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 5.1 10.8 12.3 76.1 48.1 39.8 7.4 10.8 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 6.0 12.3 15.1 80.9 50.3 40.9 8.2 12.3 19.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 5.5 9.6 17.9 83.4 49.2 40.0 6.3 9.8 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 3.9 8.4 14.0 72.8 53.0 40.9 4.4 7.4 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 5.3 10.0 14.0 77.6 50.1 40.6 5.7 10.0 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.8 7.4 12.6 88.5 54.6 46.4 4.8 6.8 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 6.5 13.3 17.2 80.4 49.5 39.9 7.4 13.6 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.2 7.5 13.9 89.7 50.7 42.8 4.7 7.3 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 5.5 10.5 17.0 80.7 49.4 39.8 6.1 10.6 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 6.5 11.5 14.2 82.8 51.1 42.3 5.8 10.7 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.4 8.2 13.9 90.9 55.1 46.2 2.9 7.8 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.8 6.9 13.9 86.5 48.6 41.0 2.7 7.0 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 5.8 12.5 15.9 79.3 48.6 39.1 8.3 12.5 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 6.2 10.9 15.7 84.7 51.3 42.3 6.6 10.9 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 4.1 8.1 14.3 83.1 48.5 42.1 3.6 8.4 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 5.7 11.0 15.0 87.7 50.0 42.3 7.4 11.0 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 3.8 8.3 14.8 73.8 51.1 41.1 5.5 8.0 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 9.1 15.0 16.8 80.0 49.4 39.6 9.2 15.2 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 5.6 10.0 14.1 92.1 52.0 43.5 6.9 9.8 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------