***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.04.2021.-18.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 7.8 17.0 12.6 87.9 55.1 45.9 6.7 15.2 22.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 6.8 13.1 12.0 95.0 56.0 47.0 6.9 11.1 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 10.4 17.9 12.3 89.5 56.7 47.4 11.4 16.4 23.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 13.8 22.1 14.5 91.6 56.9 47.3 14.1 21.7 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 19.0 20.6 14.2 94.4 59.5 49.4 11.2 14.8 23.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 10.0 18.4 16.1 96.6 59.0 49.0 8.2 14.9 21.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 5.9 12.8 12.0 94.8 56.8 47.2 6.1 10.5 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 19.7 32.6 15.8 100.8 60.3 50.3 19.3 28.8 34.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 19.6 21.8 14.5 95.2 59.8 50.9 7.5 16.3 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 18.9 20.9 17.0 102.2 61.2 52.2 9.3 16.3 21.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 7.6 17.5 14.0 98.0 61.4 50.3 9.9 14.0 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 9.7 20.0 13.4 97.0 59.6 48.7 6.9 16.0 22.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 10.3 20.5 15.1 95.5 59.1 48.5 12.7 19.1 25.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 12.8 21.5 17.5 99.4 56.9 49.2 14.3 21.0 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 8.6 16.9 13.6 90.5 59.2 47.9 11.3 16.0 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 9.5 20.3 14.3 94.9 60.0 49.0 10.2 15.0 26.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 7.8 15.4 11.6 93.0 54.6 46.7 6.8 14.5 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 9.8 16.9 17.5 101.8 60.2 52.5 9.6 15.3 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 8.7 15.3 12.2 95.3 56.6 47.5 8.7 14.5 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.7 17.1 17.2 95.6 56.3 48.7 7.1 12.7 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 10.3 16.9 13.1 90.5 57.9 49.2 10.2 12.7 20.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 5.6 13.9 12.2 92.5 55.9 46.7 7.6 11.7 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 9.3 18.1 12.7 95.4 55.8 47.7 9.5 16.0 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 10.0 19.4 15.5 96.6 58.2 50.5 10.8 15.7 21.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 9.4 20.6 14.6 90.4 56.9 46.8 14.3 16.5 23.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 9.2 17.2 13.4 91.3 55.5 47.1 9.4 15.2 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 8.0 18.4 13.7 89.4 56.0 46.5 11.1 15.1 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 7.8 19.8 13.9 89.2 58.0 47.5 9.3 13.6 21.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 14.9 22.2 17.0 98.3 58.8 51.2 15.5 20.6 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 7.1 14.4 12.0 91.8 55.2 46.5 9.4 13.5 19.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------