***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.04.2021.-11.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9.1 8.8 17.3 114.2 63.1 57.3 4.2 7.6 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.5 9.0 14.2 103.4 60.3 54.6 3.0 7.0 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.3 8.8 15.6 104.4 59.9 54.2 4.4 6.7 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 18.3 19.5 18.2 108.8 63.7 54.4 8.4 17.0 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.4 12.6 16.4 102.1 60.2 52.0 4.3 7.8 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.6 8.3 16.7 94.8 53.5 48.5 2.5 7.7 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.2 7.0 14.3 105.3 60.8 55.2 1.6 4.3 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 8.2 18.6 16.9 100.0 55.9 51.1 9.4 16.5 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.7 7.9 16.1 99.7 58.2 51.1 4.1 7.1 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.8 13.6 17.3 100.1 56.8 51.2 6.2 11.5 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.5 8.5 16.3 99.8 58.9 51.1 2.9 6.6 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.8 9.1 15.9 102.1 58.5 51.5 1.5 6.5 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.5 6.5 16.8 96.2 54.9 48.1 2.8 5.3 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 7.6 15.0 18.3 97.9 55.9 50.4 7.2 12.3 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 8.9 9.6 17.7 113.6 65.2 56.6 2.8 7.2 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.6 10.1 16.6 100.9 59.3 50.7 2.9 7.4 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.1 5.9 14.1 107.1 62.7 55.5 2.9 3.9 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.4 8.1 17.0 92.8 50.9 48.0 4.9 7.8 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.4 8.9 14.4 101.9 59.3 53.7 3.9 6.1 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.3 8.7 17.6 88.4 49.2 45.9 4.8 8.8 11.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 9.0 10.9 16.4 105.2 60.3 53.7 4.4 6.7 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.8 10.1 15.2 109.2 64.2 55.5 4.3 6.2 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.9 9.4 14.9 100.0 56.9 52.3 4.3 8.5 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 5.1 9.2 16.4 94.7 52.4 49.4 5.4 9.1 10.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.9 12.1 20.1 116.2 66.2 57.5 5.7 7.4 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.5 7.6 15.7 93.2 54.7 47.7 1.6 5.8 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.5 12.3 19.3 118.5 66.1 58.4 3.4 9.0 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.6 12.6 17.0 106.2 63.0 53.3 3.5 8.8 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.6 11.5 17.2 90.5 48.6 46.8 9.8 11.7 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.7 14.8 104.3 60.2 54.5 3.3 6.4 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------