***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 1.8 3.5 7.4 64.1 47.1 38.9 1.3 3.9 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 1.2 2.1 6.1 57.3 44.1 36.5 0.9 3.3 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 1.9 4.2 6.8 60.4 47.6 37.3 1.3 5.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 5.0 9.2 6.9 51.0 43.4 33.6 5.8 10.1 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 2.5 3.7 6.4 53.8 43.0 33.5 2.6 5.9 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 3.3 4.0 5.6 45.8 35.6 31.4 3.7 5.9 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 0.8 1.8 6.2 56.9 44.9 36.9 1.0 2.0 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 4.3 5.7 7.2 51.6 35.9 32.5 5.4 9.7 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 1.7 3.5 7.0 59.3 43.0 35.5 1.1 4.3 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 2.2 4.1 7.1 54.1 38.2 32.6 2.3 5.7 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 2.2 3.8 6.1 51.4 40.3 32.2 2.5 4.6 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 2.1 4.3 6.2 50.6 37.5 32.7 3.4 5.4 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 1.7 3.8 5.4 44.1 35.2 28.9 3.1 4.9 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 1.2 3.1 9.2 68.6 51.3 37.3 1.4 2.9 5.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.4 5.6 5.8 50.3 49.1 34.1 2.7 6.1 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 2.0 4.7 5.5 47.5 38.2 31.1 3.3 5.8 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 0.8 1.5 6.0 55.7 44.4 36.3 0.6 2.0 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 1.1 2.6 8.2 60.9 41.9 34.7 1.0 3.2 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 0.9 1.9 6.3 58.4 44.4 36.8 1.0 2.4 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 2.7 4.8 7.9 53.3 38.2 32.0 3.5 7.8 9.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 2.1 4.7 7.2 60.6 46.0 36.4 1.6 5.7 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 1.1 2.2 6.2 55.2 43.1 35.6 1.0 2.9 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 1.3 2.6 6.6 61.3 45.7 37.3 1.6 3.8 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 1.7 4.0 8.0 65.7 47.8 37.3 2.0 4.3 9.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 2.2 5.6 7.3 57.4 44.5 35.0 3.6 6.2 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 1.7 1.3 4.8 37.6 32.1 27.5 1.7 5.4 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 1.2 2.1 7.5 62.1 45.8 37.6 1.2 2.8 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.5 4.9 5.8 46.7 43.0 32.8 4.0 6.1 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 3.3 5.9 8.4 60.1 42.6 33.8 4.9 7.7 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 1.2 2.6 6.5 59.5 46.2 37.5 0.6 3.1 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------