***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.04.2021.-25.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 19.2 20.4 18.1 0.9 64.3 59.5 17.3 18.8 20.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 19.0 20.2 17.9 1.0 64.5 60.6 17.4 18.5 20.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 19.4 20.4 18.4 1.0 65.5 59.9 17.2 18.9 20.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 11.5 12.0 15.8 0.8 61.8 58.2 10.3 11.0 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 19.3 20.2 16.5 0.8 63.1 58.5 17.5 18.9 20.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 18.1 18.3 14.4 0.8 61.0 57.6 16.3 17.6 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 19.8 19.6 17.8 0.9 63.7 60.3 17.0 18.3 20.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 7.2 8.1 15.2 1.1 64.7 59.8 4.9 6.7 8.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 18.6 19.4 16.9 0.9 63.3 59.1 17.0 18.2 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 18.8 19.6 15.9 1.1 65.2 59.8 17.3 18.3 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 18.8 19.8 16.3 0.8 62.9 58.0 17.4 18.2 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 18.3 18.3 16.0 0.8 61.8 58.2 16.3 17.8 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 19.0 19.6 15.2 0.8 61.9 57.7 17.4 18.4 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 20.3 20.0 17.0 1.2 66.8 60.9 17.9 19.3 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 18.8 19.0 16.5 0.7 60.1 56.8 17.3 18.3 19.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 19.2 19.9 15.8 0.8 61.7 57.7 17.8 18.6 20.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 19.5 19.5 17.7 1.0 65.3 61.2 16.8 17.9 19.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 18.1 19.2 15.7 1.3 66.8 61.3 17.1 17.6 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 19.1 19.9 18.1 1.0 65.1 60.8 17.1 18.6 19.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 13.6 15.1 13.2 1.5 67.8 62.7 11.7 13.0 14.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 19.2 20.1 17.8 1.0 64.7 59.8 17.3 18.8 20.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 20.4 20.1 17.8 1.1 66.4 61.7 17.8 19.1 20.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 19.5 20.7 18.3 1.0 65.9 60.6 17.8 19.1 20.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 18.8 19.5 16.9 1.2 66.2 60.6 17.3 18.3 19.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 18.8 20.6 16.5 0.9 63.8 59.3 17.2 18.2 20.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 18.8 18.8 15.0 0.8 60.7 57.8 16.9 18.3 19.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 18.8 20.2 17.4 0.9 64.6 59.5 17.2 18.2 20.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 18.8 18.6 16.0 0.7 61.3 57.4 17.3 18.2 19.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 13.6 14.2 14.8 1.4 66.9 61.7 12.0 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 19.1 20.1 17.9 0.9 63.8 60.1 17.2 18.6 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------