***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.04.2021.-18.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 14.6 16.6 16.4 0.1 51.0 50.8 15.0 16.6 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 14.7 16.7 16.3 0.2 52.8 51.6 14.7 16.5 17.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 14.9 16.9 16.7 0.2 51.9 51.0 15.2 16.7 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 7.6 9.0 14.3 0.1 49.3 50.4 8.1 9.1 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 14.9 17.1 15.0 0.1 50.0 50.2 15.6 17.1 18.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 13.6 15.5 13.1 0.3 49.2 51.2 14.5 15.6 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 14.7 16.7 16.2 0.1 52.2 51.2 14.6 16.7 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 2.4 4.7 13.7 0.3 51.0 51.2 3.2 4.7 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 14.0 16.3 15.4 0.2 49.7 50.3 15.0 16.3 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 14.7 16.9 14.4 0.3 50.7 50.9 14.8 16.9 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 14.6 16.8 14.9 0.1 49.8 50.0 15.5 16.8 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 13.9 15.5 14.6 0.2 50.7 50.5 14.1 15.4 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 14.8 16.7 13.8 0.2 50.6 50.9 15.7 16.7 17.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 14.5 16.2 15.4 0.3 52.6 51.1 15.1 16.0 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.6 14.8 -0.1 48.7 49.3 15.7 16.7 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 15.3 17.1 14.4 0.2 50.0 50.4 15.8 17.1 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 14.2 16.0 16.2 0.3 53.1 52.4 14.3 15.8 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 14.1 16.3 14.2 0.4 52.1 51.8 14.0 16.2 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 14.4 16.2 16.5 0.2 53.3 51.8 14.6 16.0 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 11.5 11.4 11.6 0.6 54.3 53.5 9.3 11.1 11.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 14.6 16.8 16.2 0.2 50.8 50.8 15.5 16.8 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 16.5 16.3 16.3 0.3 53.8 53.1 14.8 16.0 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 16.5 16.1 16.7 0.2 53.1 51.6 15.1 15.9 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 14.3 16.3 15.4 0.3 51.4 51.1 14.4 16.2 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 14.8 16.8 14.9 0.2 50.3 50.9 15.7 16.8 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.4 13.6 0.3 51.5 51.3 15.1 16.3 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 14.7 16.7 15.7 0.1 51.0 50.8 15.3 16.6 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 15.3 16.6 14.4 0.0 48.7 49.8 15.4 16.6 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.8 11.1 13.3 0.5 53.6 52.4 9.1 10.7 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 14.5 16.4 16.3 0.1 52.2 50.9 14.6 16.3 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------