***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.04.2021.-11.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.9 16.5 1.3 62.5 58.2 15.1 16.6 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 17.6 17.7 16.0 0.9 56.5 55.8 15.4 17.1 18.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.3 18.4 16.7 1.3 61.5 57.9 15.3 17.9 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.6 12.8 14.2 1.6 66.1 60.3 7.7 10.9 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 18.7 19.3 15.4 1.7 66.5 60.1 15.5 18.1 19.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 19.1 19.4 14.2 2.3 71.1 65.0 14.5 16.8 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 15.2 17.5 15.9 0.9 56.4 55.7 15.2 17.2 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 6.2 7.0 14.0 1.9 66.0 61.0 2.9 5.6 7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 18.3 18.3 16.0 1.6 64.9 59.4 15.1 17.8 18.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 18.4 19.9 14.8 1.8 65.2 60.1 15.3 17.8 20.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 18.4 20.0 15.7 1.7 65.3 60.0 15.2 17.7 20.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 17.7 19.5 14.9 1.7 64.6 60.7 14.6 17.0 19.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 18.4 20.4 15.2 1.9 66.0 61.6 15.3 17.6 20.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 15.7 18.5 15.5 1.3 58.4 56.9 14.9 17.1 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 18.4 18.7 15.5 1.2 61.7 58.4 16.3 17.8 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 18.9 20.5 15.3 1.8 66.0 61.3 15.8 18.3 20.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 14.5 16.8 15.6 0.8 55.8 55.1 14.7 16.3 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 18.2 18.3 14.3 1.9 65.4 60.2 14.9 17.6 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 17.6 17.4 16.2 1.0 57.3 56.1 15.2 17.1 18.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.3 14.0 12.1 2.1 68.6 62.0 9.2 12.8 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 18.1 18.7 16.7 1.6 65.2 59.3 15.7 17.4 18.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 15.3 17.2 15.7 0.9 55.4 55.0 14.8 17.0 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 15.5 17.9 16.4 1.1 57.9 56.3 14.9 17.1 19.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 17.5 18.5 15.7 1.5 62.3 58.4 15.1 16.9 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 17.9 18.2 15.4 1.4 64.5 59.1 15.8 17.3 18.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 18.7 19.6 14.2 2.0 68.9 63.3 15.1 16.6 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 18.0 18.3 15.8 1.3 62.1 58.1 15.8 17.5 18.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 18.7 19.8 14.9 1.6 65.5 60.1 16.3 18.1 19.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.6 13.5 1.9 65.6 60.2 9.3 13.0 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 17.6 17.3 16.2 1.0 57.5 56.4 15.2 17.1 18.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------