***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 18.2 18.9 17.1 2.3 81.3 72.2 15.0 16.5 18.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 18.1 18.6 17.3 2.3 81.4 72.7 16.4 17.0 17.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 18.6 19.3 17.3 2.1 80.2 70.5 15.6 17.2 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 10.6 11.4 14.0 2.4 79.3 72.2 6.8 8.8 10.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 18.9 19.6 15.5 2.1 78.6 70.2 15.3 17.2 18.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 17.1 17.2 12.9 1.4 72.1 65.7 14.1 15.1 16.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 17.5 18.2 17.0 2.2 82.2 72.1 15.8 16.3 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 5.8 6.1 13.1 1.4 71.9 64.8 3.3 4.1 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 18.5 19.4 16.6 2.2 80.9 71.1 15.2 16.9 17.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 18.4 18.3 14.4 1.6 74.6 66.4 15.7 17.1 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 18.6 19.0 15.8 1.8 77.6 68.5 15.4 16.9 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 17.3 17.7 14.1 1.5 73.4 65.9 15.1 15.9 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 18.0 18.3 14.8 1.2 72.5 64.6 15.6 16.6 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 18.7 19.2 16.9 2.4 81.7 71.5 16.0 17.5 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 17.8 18.5 16.2 2.3 77.6 71.4 14.5 15.9 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 19.1 19.2 14.9 1.6 75.1 67.4 15.5 17.5 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 17.0 17.8 17.0 2.5 83.0 74.4 15.5 16.0 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 18.2 18.6 14.0 1.9 76.6 68.5 15.0 16.7 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 18.0 18.4 17.4 2.3 80.9 72.1 16.0 17.0 17.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 13.0 13.0 11.4 1.6 74.5 67.3 10.0 11.1 12.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 18.5 19.5 17.3 2.2 81.3 71.3 15.5 16.9 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 18.1 18.7 17.3 2.6 83.7 74.9 16.0 17.0 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 18.5 18.8 17.4 2.2 80.7 71.2 16.3 17.4 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 18.5 19.1 16.5 2.2 79.9 70.7 15.8 17.3 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 18.4 19.1 16.1 2.3 80.1 72.4 14.5 16.5 18.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 17.2 17.1 12.9 1.1 68.2 64.2 14.9 15.7 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 18.1 18.8 16.5 2.2 80.9 72.0 15.6 16.7 18.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 18.1 19.0 14.8 2.1 75.9 69.7 14.4 15.7 17.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 13.1 13.7 13.6 2.1 78.6 70.2 9.9 11.2 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 17.8 18.3 17.2 2.3 81.0 72.0 16.0 16.8 17.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------